Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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092
FXUS63 KMPX 242101
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
401 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Mid level clouds in southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska have
been largely moving eastward. Precipitation has been very light and
generally less than an hour at any given location. It had looked
like the precip would generally slide southeast into iowa, but there
is still enough eastward movement that it merits adding isolated
showers in far south central Minnesota through 7 pm.  Latest short
term guidenace suggests mid level trough axis will be moving past
south central MN by 7 pm.  Upper level trough exits late tonight,
with ridging and quiet weather. At the surface, high pressure in
South Dakota will move southeast, and winds will be lightest in
southwest Minnesota. Some weak gradient will persist from central
Minnesota into Wisconsin, just enough that fog should not be an
issue except perhaps in some low spots of central and southern MN,
and this will need to be watched.

Surface high drifts across Iowa tomorrow, with ridge poking
northward into Minnesota. Therefore it looks like it should be a
rather pleasant day, with dew points mostly in the lower 60s and
light winds gradually turning to the southwest in western MN, but
remaining from the northwest in central and eastern MN and
in west central Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

The longer term concerns will be timing of convective threats in
what appears to be a bit more northwest flow pattern developing
into midweek.

Tuesday appears to be the warmest day of the week as
deterministic models are trying to buckle the northern stream
flow a bit more. The Hudson Bay low becomes a bit more dominant
and drives any northwest coast energy southwest across the
northern plains through the week. This should should increase the
rain/thunder threat into Wednesday as the wave deepens and moves
slowly southeast over the southern Great Lakes. We expect this
to provide at least a chance of rain into at least Friday before
Canadian high pressure drops over the area and begins to dry the
region out into the weekend.

The overall severe weather threat will remain rather low with no
big forcing/instability seen to affect the area. Cloud trends
will also preclude significant warming...with temperatures
trending a few degrees below normal through the end of the
week. More sunshine and rising heights aloft are expected to return
into the weekend with readings returning to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

Main concern this afternoon will be gusty w-nw winds. Some
locations have been gusting around 20 knots during the late
morning, and that should persist through the afternoon before
tapering off around sunset. Winds will increase a little bit late
tomorrow morning, but not as much as today.

Stream of accas from southern South Dakota and Nebraska will
persist across southern MN and into Wisconsin. The accas do have
some spotty showers but it is doubtful the precip will make it
beyond southwest MN as the mid/upper flow suggests it will drop
back into Iowa.

KMSP...
Few additional concerns. WNW gusts around 20 knots this afternoon
should taper off a little before sunset with loss of heating. High
pressure will be over the area on Monday with winds remaining
below 10 knots with no expectation of gusts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Tue...VFR. Slgt Chance afternoon TSRA, better chance Tuesday evening.
      Winds SW 5 kts.
Wed...VFR. Chance TSRA. Winds S 5 kts.
Thu...VFR. Chance TSRA. Winds NE 5 kts.


&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...TDK



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