Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 111659
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1059 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.updated for 18z taf discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

The band of light snow has shifted out of Minnesota but continues
across most of Wisconsin early this morning. Meanwhile upstream,
the upper low over eastern North Dakota will continue sliding
southeast this morning. A cluster of showers over west central
Minnesota will also continue propagating east southeast early this
morning. A wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow has
accompanied this activity, but it is beginning to head into a
colder atmosphere so it should transition to snow as it progresses
into central and eastern Minnesota during the next few hours.
Minor ice accumulations are possible near Alexandria, Long
Prairie, Glenwood, and possibly Little Falls. Additional snow
showers are possible with the upper low itself as it passes
overhead, but they should be scattered and light with minimal
accumulation. Drier air will filter in behind the low`s passage
with precip chances ending this afternoon.

Winds on the western side of the upper low have been strengthening
over the Dakotas. Gusts of 40-45 mph have been common. It may be
tougher to get those kinds of gusts this far east given the track
of the low. Forecast soundings have been coming down a bit with
winds aloft and there aren`t any locations in our CWA or models
showing 40+ kts within the mixed layer. Cannot rule out an
isolated occurrence near the South Dakota border or the MN river
valley, but the risk isn`t high enough to warrant a Wind
Advisory.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Overall not too much to discuss in the long term period. Northwest
flow will continue into Friday with several disturbances sliding
southeast across the region this week. The strongest appear to be
Tuesday night/Wednesday and Friday/Friday evening. In both cases,
the highest accumulating snow potential will be across northern MN
into northern/central WI and the Great Lakes. Otherwise, mostly
cloudy conditions with occasional flurries and near normal
temperatures can be expected.

The pattern could change next weekend and early the following week
with the ridge out west breaking down and the flow across the
CONUS becoming more zonal. This will open the door for more
substantial waves to come ashore the Pacific Northwest. It will
also mean above normal temps heading through the middle of
December.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

MVFR cigs remain in the wake of the surface low. Secondary cold
front drops south over the area this afternoon and still could
generate -shsn mainly over the east. Expect slow clearing from
north to south into the evening. Strong nw winds in the wake of
the system to continue into the evening and relax west to east.
Some mid clouds indicated developing ahead of the next weak wave
with some mid clouds building into western mn late. SREF probs for
MVFR cigs increase again into Tue morning over the northwest cwa
and will mention this at KAXN after 13z.

KMSP...MVFR cigs expected through 00z with still a passing -shsn
possible. Strong nw winds building into the region should relax
by 05z. High pressure builds in into Tuesday with increasing
mid/high level clouds.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue night...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Wed...MVFR with chc -SN. Wind SE 5 kts mrng, NW aftn 10-15 kts.
Thu...Chc MVFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ047-048-054>056-
     064-073-074-082-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE


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