Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000
FXUS63 KMPX 212107
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
407 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL
MN AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S
TO THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY WILL BE A FINE DAY WEATHER-WISE WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY WITH SPEEDS 10 MPH OR LESS. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY READINGS WILL DIP INTO THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WERE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY MIX-DOWN FROM 825MB OFF THE NAM
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT SUPER. THIS YIELDED READINGS FROM AROUND 60 IN
THE MN RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER 50S AROUND LADYSMITH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED...BESIDES RAISING POPS IN THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIME FRAME GIVEN THE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
PRECIP AND BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS /ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY/.

THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT HAS SHIFTED A BIT LATER IN TIME AND WILL
MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH
ADVANCING 600-800MB FGEN AND WIDESPREAD OMEGA WITH AN ADVANCING
SURFACE CYCLONE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY PRECEDING THE
CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAIN...BUT WITH LIGHT QPF
AMOUNTS. ONLY THE 21.12Z GFS HAS MORE OF A CONVECTIVELY BASED QPF
BULLSEYE IN WEST CENTRAL MN. AS FAR AS THE PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...WE ARE MUCH HAPPIER WITH THE MODE AGREEMENT TODAY
AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING
ISSUES AND THE 21.12Z ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS NOW IS FOCUSING THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG AN AXIS FROM WESTERN IA...TO SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN...AND INTO WESTERN WI. THE GFS REMAINS A BIT
FARTHER NORTH AND WOULD HAVE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE TWIN CITIES METRO. WE ARE DISCOUNTING THE GEM AS AN
EXTREME NORTHERN OUTLIER.

THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON JUST AS A
SECOND COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. WITH DRY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW SETTING
UP WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
RIDGE...WE PROBABLY SHOULD HAVE BEEN MORE AGGRESSIVE AT CLEARING
OUT PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS AN ADVANCING
UPPER LOW LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT MUCH OF THE FORCING REMAINS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH COOL EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW...KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH
SPEEDS OF 15-20 KNOTS LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM
KAXN ON SOUTH THROUGH KRWF. MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN APPROACHING
KAXN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE LEADING EDGE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ERODING. PLAN ON JUST KEEPING A SCT DECK FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH A SLOW VEERING TO
THE NORTH - NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY.

KMSP...VFR FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS REACHING THE UPPER 20 KNOT RANGE. SPEEDS
WILL DIMINISH RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. NORTH WINDS 6 TO 8
KNOTS ON TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE AFTN...VFR. N WIND 6-8 KTS.
TUE NGT...VFR. WIND BCMG SE 6-8 KTS.
WED...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH -RA.
SE WIND 10-20 KTS.
WED NGT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY IN -RA WITH IFR POSSIBLE.
SE WIND 15 TO 20 KTS.
THU...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LIKELY EARLY WITH -RA. S WIND 10-20 KTS
SHIFTING W.
THU NGT...VFR. WEST WIND 5 TO 15 KT.
FRI...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF -RA. W WIND 5-15
KTS BCMG NW.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047-054>056-
     064-065-073>075-082-083-091-092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.