Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 260846
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
346 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A benign short term period is expected, as temperatures trend back
toward late June normals in the wake of Saturday`s frontal passage.
That being said, temperatures will still be above normal today given
the sunny skies and breezy westerly flow which is favorable for
warming. Temperatures will warm into the 80`s (mixing to 775mb),
although it will be noticeably less humid thanks to dewpoints around
20 degrees lower than Saturday`s values. Models do not quite seem to
be capturing the drying sufficiently, so have tweaked readings lower
than numerical guidance indicates for this afternoon. Think upper
40s to lower 50s seem reasonable given upstream trends, which will
translate to afternoon minimum relative humidity values in the 25 to
35 percent range.

Tonight expect to see increasing cloud cover approaching from the
north with continued westerly (lighter) winds yielding mild lows in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Persistent northwest upper flow will bring quiescent conditions
to the area through most of the week. The only decent chance of
precipitation looks to occur during the late Wednesday through
Thursday time frame when a decent shortwave trough is progged to
drop through in the northwest flow and push a cold frontal
boundary through the area. The model guidance is in good agreement
on the large scale flow pattern through the week, and the GFS,
ECMWF, and Canadian are actually even within 6 hours or so with
the shortwave/frontal timing on Thursday. So, confidence in the
forecast is fairly high at this point, allow PoPs to be limited
and not make an appearance until late Wednesday night and
Thursday. Included some chance PoPs across the west on Saturday,
but that is in part due to holding onto some of the previous
solutions, which were a bit faster in bringing return flow back
into the region. The latest guidance has slowed things down, so
it`s possible subsequent forecasts will be able to keep things dry
after Thursday until at least Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Behind the thunderstorms from around Eau Claire, VFR conditions
are in place and will continue through the rest of the period.
West winds will increase Sunday with some gusts around 30 kt
across central and western Minnesota.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. North wind 5 to 10 kts.
WED...VFR. Southwest wind 5 kts.
THU...VFR. Isolated SHRA/TSRA. Northwest wind 5 to 10 kts.


&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



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