Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 301908
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
208 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

IT`S A QUIET WEATHER MORNING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN WITH
FAIRLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND JUST A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE THAT PRODUCED THE RAIN AND STRONG WINDS YESTERDAY
IS NOW DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA THERE IS AN ENHANCED REGION OF MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONTOGENESIS
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WAVE ISN`T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SHAKE LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...AND WE DONT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION WHERE IT DOES RAIN. MOST OF
MINNESOTA WILL REMAIN DRY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WEEK WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW AMPLITUDE NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK
COLD FRONT. IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT AT THIS TIME PROBABLY REMAINS FAIRLY LOW ACROSS
MN/WI...WITH A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD DOWN AROUND THE I-80 CORRIDOR AS
OPPOSED TO I-90.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH THETA_E ADVECTION
SPREADING OUT AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM LAYER JUST ABOVE 800MB...WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE ELEVATED MIXING LAYER ABOVE IT. IF THE SURFACE WINDS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION...AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHERLY...THAN THE LOW LEVEL
COVERGENCE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP.
THE SAME RESULT WILL OCCUR IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LESS
THAN INDICATED. FOR NOW...CONTINUED WITH POPS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...CENTERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR A WIND
THREAT IF CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP.

LOOKING AHEAD...COOLER TEMPS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR EARLY
APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

DIFFUSE SFC TROF OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED -SHRA TO DEVELOP
ALONG-NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR...THUS MAINLY AFFECTING KAXN-
KSTC-KRNH-KEAU. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT THE TROF HAS KEPT WINDS
WITH A PREVAILING ELY COMPONENT FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KRWF...AND
HAS ALSO BROUGHT IN CEILINGS IN THE 050 AREA. GOING INTO THE LATE
AFTN AND EVE...WINDS LOOK TO SWING TO SELY IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
PRES CIRCULATION OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS LOW WILL SLIDE E ACRS THE
AREA THIS EVE INTO TNGT...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS
BCMG NW OVERNIGHT THRU MUCH OF TMRW. SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KT MAY
DEVELOP FROM TIME TO TIME THIS AFTN AND EVE BEFORE SETTLING DOWN
INTO TEH 5-10 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT THRU TMRW.

KMSP...THE MOST COMPLICATED PART OF THE FCST WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON HAVING THE E-SE WINDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN
N OF KMSP...AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THRU THE REST OF THE AFTN.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO NW OVERNIGHT...SO AFTER THE EVENING
PUSH TDA AND BEFORE THE MRNG PUSH TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WINDS S 15-25KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 20-30 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THERE IS A FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON RH VALUES NEAR 25% AND WIND UP NEAR 30 MPH
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A LIGHT BREEZE
UNTIL THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW.
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS TOO WARM WITH THE DEWPOINTS AND
THUS TOO HIGH WITH THE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE RAP AND ONLY 1 OR 2
OTHER SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE RH
TODAY...THE ECMWF/NAM/GFS SEEM TOO HIGH GIVEN THE SETUP. THIS WINDS
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG TODAY AS CAMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ064-073-074-
     082-091.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...CLF
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC
FIRE WEATHER...CLF



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