Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 250923
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
323 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN SNOW THREAT ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE PERIOD.

MODELS STILL INDICATE AT LEAST A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA.  THIS IS FOCUSED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR MADISON AND
APPLETON TO NEAR ST CLOUD.  PERHAPS AN INCH INDICATED BY ST CLOUD
WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OUT TOWARD WEST CENTRAL MN BY FRIDAY MORNING.
JET STREAK INDUCED FORCING RIDES OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AS THE
NORTHERN STREAM JET AXIS LIFTS OFF. TEMPERATURES FORECASTED TO RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.  WITH STRONG FORCING...COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN
MIXED WITH SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE SNOW AREA DURING THE
DAY.

THEN FORCING REFOCUSES DURING THE NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET
NOSES NORTHEAST INTO IOWA FOCUSING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BEHIND SURFACE
FRONT.  SMALL CHANCE OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CWA INTO TONIGHT AS ICE IS NOT INTRODUCED
INTO THE CLOUD LAYER.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...AND A NORTHERN STREAM CYCLONE OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA. SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE FOUR CORNERS
TROUGH WILL STREAM NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. OVERCAST
SKIES WILL PERSIST...WHILE LOW LEVEL LIFT PROVIDES THE SUPPORT FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. STILL LOOKS LIKE PERIODS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE MAY ACCOMPANY THE LIGHT SNOW FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THE AREA...GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF PERSISTENT UPPER FORCING.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONGER/DEEPER FORCING ARRIVES AS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD TURN ANY
MIXY PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOUTHERN MN AND WI
APPEARING TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS. LOOKS LIKE AREAS ALONG AND
EAST OF A REDWOOD FALLS TO TWIN CITIES TO RICE LAKE WISCONSIN LINE
COULD SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF NEW SNOW BETWEEN 00Z AND 18Z SATURDAY.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OF SOUTHERN STREAM ORIGIN
GETS ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM...AND THE FLOW PATTERN
LOCALLY BECOMES MORE ZONAL. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS QUEBEC...COLD HIGH PRESSURE INFILTRATES THE
NORTHERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY LATE MONDAY...H85 TEMPS LOWER
TO AROUND -20C...WHICH INDICATES HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL TOP
OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ON MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

IFR CIGS ACROSS MUCH OF MN. ALREADY HAVE MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN AND THE SOUTHWEST WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF
RETREATING RIDGE AND INCOMING COLD FRONT IS SCOURING THE LOW
CLOUDS OVER WESTERN CENTRAL MN. THIS MAY WORK INTO KRWF AND KAXN
NEXT HOUR OR SO...LIFTING TO VFR FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...THE IFR CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE EAST IN THE SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS MAY WORK FARTHER EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. OTHERWISE...SNOW THREAT
INCREASING OVER THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE DAY. COULD MIX WITH
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN DURING THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR CRITICAL VALUES. SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW AS BETTER LIFT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL MN DURING THE DAY.
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM JET STREAK EXITS THE
AREA INTO THE EVENING AND MAY GENERATE A LULL IN ANY PRECIPITATION
AT LEAST EARLY INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE MORE FORCING MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. MVFR TO IFR CIGS LOOKS LIKELY AGAIN INTO THE NIGHT MOST
AREAS. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A BIT BREEZY
TO THE SOUTHWEST...BEFORE THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
SURFACE WINDS LIGHT BECOMING NE-N WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

KMSP...LOW END MVFR TO IFS CIGS INTO THE MORNING. BELIEVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SNOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AIRPORT
THROUGH AT LEAST 23Z. THEN AS FRONT SAGS IN...WE COULD SEE SOME
-SN INTO THE EVENING...BUT IS NOT TO BE SIGNIFICANT. MENTIONED
PROB30 FOR THIS POTENTIAL. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF THROUGH
LOW END MVFR AGAIN AT LEAST INTO THE COMING NIGHT. SW-S WINDS
DURING THE DAYTIME...10KTS OR LESS. THEN WITH FROPA...EXPECT WINDS
TO TURN MORE E-NE AND THE N LATER TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...MVFR/IFR WITH CHC -SN. WINDS NNW 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WNW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE





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