Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 210405
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1105 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2016

Updated to include 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2016

Very quiet weather in the short term as upper level height rises
will lead to surface high pressure and plenty of sunshine.
Boundary later mixing together with a surface pressure gradient
has led to northwest wind gusts near 20 to 25 mph this afternoon,
but these will decrease around sunset. Meanwhile the pressure
gradient will relax across the region resulting in light winds by
daybreak on Wednesday. Dry weather is expected once again on
Tuesday, but Sunday`s cold front will begin to lift northward as a
warm front setting the stage for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
night into Wednesday, which is discussed in further detail in the
long term section.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2016

The weather will become more active tomorrow night as an energetic
shortwave slides along the canadian border north of Montana and
North Dakota while a separate surface low develops to south of
there and advances east through Wednesday. Very strong theta-e
advection is forecast to move in from our southwest through the
evening and the low level jet intensify overnight as nearly 50kt
850mb winds through Nebraska push into far southwestern Minnesota.
In addition, strong upper level divergence will line up well over
North Dakota through Western Minnesota and advance through far
south central Minnesota by Wednesday morning. With the forcing
both in the low levels and jet level and the increase in moisture
owing to that very strong theta-e advection and precipitable water
values increasing to about 1.7", feel confident in likely pops for
western Minnesota through far south central Minnesota.

In terms of instability, modest instability will be present so
expect to see thunderstorms but at this time the better
combination of shear and instability will remain in close
proximity to the frontal boundary and low level jet in Iowa.
Severe weather is possible, but the threat is low. This system
will work through the region by Thursday and will be followed by
high pressure and clearing skies.

The next system to keep an eye on will come onshore in the Pacific
Northwest Thursday night. This system will likely follow the
international border eastward through the weekend so it is
possible in the southwest flow pattern with instability moving in
that we have brief periods of showers and thunderstorms move
through. The main area of precipitation will stay to our north in
the vicinity of the low pressure system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2016

VFR conditions throughout. Winds will become light generally from
the SW but potentially variable overnight before picking up from
the NW again tomorrow mainly in the 5-10 kt range, although a
little higher at KEAU. Winds will then remain around 5 kt after
00z tomorrow evening but have varying directions. Skies will go
clear overnight then have high cirrus clouds filter in from the W.
Southern and western MN will see multiple layers of clouds
moving into the area approaching midnight, with a few showers
developing near KRWF although choices do increase closer to 12z.

KMSP...No significant weather impacts expected.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Winds E 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Winds N 5 kts.
FRI...VFR. Winds SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC



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