Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 151225 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
625 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

A cold front moved across Minnesota overnight, and was in western
Wisconsin during the pre dawn hours. This front ushered in much
drier air and rapidly decreased the fog and low clouds across
central and southern Minnesota after midnight. Only the far
eastern part remained under the lower clouds and some fog. Behind
the front, winds increased and will remain gusty through the day.
In addition to the gusty winds, temperatures will hold or begin to
fall by through the morning. No much change overnight as winds
become lighter as high pressure moves overhead.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

The progressive pattern remains in place across the Upper Midwest
through the weekend. As with previous discussions, models
continued to advertise the negative NAO developing along with a
slightly positive PNA. This will support colder air draining
southward from Canada next week. However, until this pattern
establishes, there remains uncertainties of when the much colder
air mass moves south. Both the EC/GFS deterministic run support
the progressive pattern through next week, with only the
northeastern CONUS having any influence on the developing negative
NAO. This will lead to holding onto the wavy pattern for the
Upper Midwest, and not having any type of cold outbreak. However,
the teleconnection, especially the negative NAO, does support the
colder scenario developing sometime for the Northern Plains, and
Upper Midwest. In addition, the AO is forecast to become negative.
This also supports the colder pattern for the Upper Midwest. It
is just a matter of time.

The system for Friday remains questionable in terms of how
widespread and concentrated the precipitation develops. The models
continue the split flow regime which leads to differences in where
the main short wave moves out into the plains. I wouldn`t be
surprised to see additional adjustments to the forecast chances of
precipitation. Currently the trend is to lower percentages, but I
am not totally convinced on this scenario. As per the strength of
the jet core aloft and the interaction of the deep moisture
advecting northward, precipitation is likely, it is just a matter
of time before the models catch on.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 623 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

IFR conditions continue over WI and parts of central MN, but cigs
should eventually become MVFR area wide this morning as mixing
increases. Clearing from southwest to northeast is possible late
this afternoon and evening. Gusty northwest winds of 25-30 kt
expected through early evening.

The window for any clearing is quickly closing. The back edge of
the initial batch of MVFR cigs continues to backbuild near FCM and
the next round of MVFR cigs is approaching from the northwest.
There may be an hour of VFR cigs between 1230-1330Z. Otherwise the
MVFR cigs should slowly rise through the day with deeper mixing.

Thu...VFR. Wind SE 10 kts.
Fri...MVFR with chance -DZ. Wind S becoming NW 5-15 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.




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