Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 241044
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
544 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

STOUT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING...WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS.
THIS RIDGE HAS A VERY WARM EML ASSOCIATED WITH IT /SEE +17C H7 TEMP
ON THE UNR SOUNDING LAST NIGHT/ AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE SHORTWAVES AND
ASSOCIATED STORMS ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...THE
MOST IMPRESSIVE OF WHICH THIS MORNING IS UP IN NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA. BY TONIGHT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO MN...THOUGH WILL
BE GETTING FLATTENED OUT BY THE H5 LOW CURRENTLY OVER WASHINGTON
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES OVERNIGHT.

THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR HAS A
COOL A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THAT WILL LIKELY DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF
PRECIP. HAVE CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY ON POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING THE DAY GOING BY DRY AS THE
LLJ AND THETA-E RIDGE LOOK TO REMAIN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE ONLY THING TO WATCH WILL BE THAT MONTANA WAVE THAT WILL BE
DIVING SE ACROSS NODAK THIS MORNING AS IT WORKS AROUND THE RIDGE.
NMM/ARW WRFS SHOW REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY WORKING ACROSS WRN MN
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONSIDERING THE RAP DOES NOT SHOW THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAKING MUCH PROGRESS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...FAVORED
THE DRY FORECAST FOR TODAY HIGHLIGHTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS.
BASICALLY...LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SW OF THE
MN RIVER...CLOSER TO WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO SE
SODAK WILL BE. OTHERWISE...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR TODAY...WITH
SRLY WINDS BRINGING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RESULTING IN HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT LOOKS TO BRING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS...WITH A COUPLE OF CAMPS
EXISTING WITH THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN
INTO NE IA...WHILE THE GEM AND WRF BASED CAMS SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS
ACTIVITY IN THE MPX AREA...WITH TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT DOWN ACROSS IA AND ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN MN. THE FIRST OF THE
SOLUTIONS MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST...SO
FAVORED THIS FORECAST TOWARD THAT CAMP AS THIS ALSO MATCHES UP WELL
WITH EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE LLJ AS IT STRENGTHENS UP INTO SW
MN AFTER 00Z AND VEERING INTO IA OVERNIGHT...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ AND EDGE OF THE CAPPED EML. THOUGH NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MOVING IN...ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40
KTS...COULD CERTAINLY SEE A FEW STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB
SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI FRIDAY MORNING IN AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND
COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET. THE NSSL...SPC AND ARW WRF/S DEPICT THE
SITUATION WELL WITH THE NMM WRF LAGGING A BIT TO THE NW. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS WESTERN WI IN THE
AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE 12-16
DEG C RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD AID IN CAPPING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A WEAKENING COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN MN. DRY WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A COMPACT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK
TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING IS BEST TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE TWIN CITIES WHERE HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. LOW CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE
FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON WEST AND SOUTH. AFTER HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S.

THE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST AT LEAST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LOW/TROUGH TAKES
SHAPE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE MASSIVE RIDGING BUILDS IN
THE FAR WEST. HENCE...A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT LOOKS PRETTY DRY WITH NO POPS
MENTIONED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE POPS
BEGIN TO CREEP BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY OVER THE WI CWA AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ON MONDAY
WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

7K FOOT CIGS HAVE THWARTED THE FOG OVER WI THIS MORNING...SO
STARTING OFF ALL TERMINALS VFR. 6Z HOPWRF MEMBERS PICKED UP ON
DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL SODAK QUITE WELL...AND
BELIEVE THEIR EVOLUTION FOR THESE STORMS THIS MORNING...WHICH IS
TO DIMINISH THEM BEFORE THEY REACH MN...AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
INSTABILITY DO NOT REALLY START TO SHOW UP IN MN UNTIL THIS
EVENING. FOLLOWED THE IDEA OF THE NAM/ECMWF FOR SHRA/TSRA
POTENTIAL TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE GREATEST FROM RWF TO MSP AND
POINTS SOUTH. ENOUGH MODEL SPREAD EXISTS THOUGH TO KEEP ANY TSRA
MENTION TO A PROB30 AT THIS POINT. OTHER THAN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THE PRECIP POTENTIAL...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN REST OF THE TAF
COMPONENTS.

KMSP...WITH THE 6Z NAM LOOKING MUCH LIKE ITS 00Z COUNTERPART AND
THE 00Z ECMWF...RETAINED PROB30 TSRA MENTION BETWEEN 7Z AND 11Z.
AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP POTENTIAL/TIMING NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO GO WITH ANYTHING HIGHER THAN THE PROB30. FRIDAY
MORNING...THE GFS/NAM ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
SO BROUGHT IN A SCT020 TO HINT AT THAT THREAT FOR NOW. OUTSIDE OF
THAT...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SSE WINDS INCREASING THIS
MORNING AND REMAINING FAIRLY PERSISTENT AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS. WINDS SSE AT 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHANCE SHRA/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW AT 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...MPG






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