Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 010831
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
331 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE STATIONARY OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA...BENIGN
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER IS FAIRLY EXTENSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING BUT
THEY WILL BE ON A DECREASING TREND LATER THIS MORNING WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUN BY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE VEERING SOUTHEAST AND WILL
STRENGTHEN TODAY OVER WESTERN MN...NEAREST A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
925 MB TEMPS WARM TO +13 TO +15C...SIGNALING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

BIGGEST TAKE AWAY FROM THE EXTENDED IS THAT YES PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING
TO BACK DOWN ON HOW WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS MUCH OF MN/WI.

FOR THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE
BOTH GIVING THE SAME IDEA OF THE LONG TERM STARTING OFF WITH MODEST
WSW FLOW ALOFT AS TROUGHING WORKS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY.
WE WILL SEE MULTIPLE WAVES RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FLOW PATTERN WED/THU
BEFORE UPPER RIDGING MOVES THROUGH FOR FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...A
SHEARED OUT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT IN ITS WAKE IS
AN UPPER PATTERN THAT LOOKS ALL TO FAMILIAR...WITH STRONG RIDGING
DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN PAC/WRN NORTH AMERICA WHILE A DEEP TROUGH
BUILDS DOWN ERN NORTH AMERICA FROM AN H5 LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY WITH NW
FLOW MAKING A RETURN AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO JUNE.

TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW ABOUT A 1000 MB LOW WORKING INTO THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH A PRETTY GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETTING UP ACROSS MN. IN ADDITION...H85 WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO
AROUND 30 KTS OUT IN WRN MN...WHICH WILL PROMOTE SOME BREEZY SE
WINDS IN THE WEST...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP AROUND 20 MPH AND SOME
30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS LIKELY. STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OUT
IN THE DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT A SMALL SLIVER OF
CHANCE POPS IN THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA AFTER 21Z TUESDAY. WITH THE
LLJ STARTING TO NUDGE INTO WRN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON...CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME ACTIVITY MAKING INTO WEST CENTRAL MN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT IS THE OVERNIGHT THAT STILL LOOKS TO OFFER OUR
BEST SHOT AT PRECIP.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THE LLJ WILL WORK ACROSS MN WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC
COLD FRONT...THOUGH THE LLJ WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND. WHAT
HAPPENS WITH PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW
THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVE TO OUR WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A COMPLEX
OR TWO LIKELY COMING AT MN FROM THE DAKOTAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL KEEP PUSHING ACROSS MN/WI. THE FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WANE AS THE LLJ CONTINUES ITS
WEAKENING TREND AS WE END UP ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE MAIN MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY IS FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY. IT
STARTS WITH HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER WILL BE LEFT OVER
FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE. 925-850 TEMPS DEFINITELY WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A GOOD DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUD COVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT BY THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE NAM/SREF QUITE A BIT FASTER WITH PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. ALL OF THAT LEADS TO AN UNCERTAIN
FORECAST...SO CAPPED POPS AT 50 PERCENT AND STRUCK A MIDDLE GROUND
WITH HIGHS. IF WE ARE TO SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THIS WOULD BE THE
DAY TO DO IT...AS THE CIPS ANALOG THREAT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR LOOKS TO
BE A BIG LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE SEVERE THREAT...WITH NOTHING MORE
THAN A STORM/CLUSTER OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...THE FRONT STILL LOOKS TO WASH OUT WITH THE BIG CHANGE FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEING THAT THE GFS/ECMWF ARE A BIT STRONGER
WITH THE HIGH PUSHING ACROSS CANADA. WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT...WE
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY...WITH SCT
CONVECTION EXPECTED WITHIN A MOIST/UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL OFFER
MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS NORTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL
PUSH DOWN FROM A LARGE SFC HIGH WORKING ACROSS ONTARIO...THIS WILL
PUSH THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES THESE DAYS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER
BOUNDARY WORKING ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WE WILL BE ON THE SRN END OF
BOTH THE FRONT AND UPPER WAVE...SO FORCING DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH PRECIP LIKELY NOT BEING ALL THAT WIDESPREAD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY...AS IT
WILL LIKELY FEATURE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WEDNESDAY HAS
POTENTIAL TO BE FAIRLY WARM AND HUMID...BUT THE WARM PART WILL
DEPEND ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE GET INTO THE EASTERLY SFC FLOW...WHILE
THE TRANSITION TO NW FLOW THE FOLLOWING WEEK LOOKS TO ENSURE THAT
OUR RUN OF FAIRLY NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN MN. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TAKE
ON A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION...WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER TEENS
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THE GUSTS SHOULD HANG ON AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS WESTERN MN.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MORNING...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 12-13KTS DURING THE
DAY. GUSTS MAY HANG ON AFTER SUNSET AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND SSE AT 15-20 KT.
WED...VFR WITH MVFR/-TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND S AT 15-20 KT.
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/-TSRA POSSIBLE. WIND VARIABLE AT 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...JRB



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