Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 251215
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
615 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

ATTENTION FOCUSED ON NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM APPROACHING IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.

BRIEF PERIOD OF TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE HEART OF MN...BUT THAT IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY AN
ADVANCING SHIELD OF LOW CLOUD ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR
WESTERN MN. THIS LOOKS TO ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY.

ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS TO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE
SURFACE LOW FROM WESTERN ND LATE TODAY...TO NEAR ABERDEEN DURING
THE EVENING...AND INTO NORTHWEST IA OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS TRACK...
ANTICIPATE THE BAND OF HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN SD AND
SOUTHWEST MN FROM THE SISSETON HILLS TO THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE AND SPEED OF SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT AMOUNTS
FOR THE MOST PART...BUT 2-4 INCHES DOES APPEAR VERY POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO
RAMP UP AND COULD CAUSE A FEW ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
COORDINATED WITH FGF/ABR/FSD REGARDING THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO ADDRESS THESE CONCERNS. BUT THERE
REMAINS JUST A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND EVENTUAL
SNOW AMOUNTS. DECISION WAS MADE TO HOLD OFF AT THIS POINT...BUT
DAY SHIFT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

AS MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH MO/IL ON WED...
SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS IN FROM MANITOBA AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND
LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. THIS...IN CONCERT WITH AMPLE COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT SNOW. SREF SHOWING HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SNOW BUT MOST
OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE LOWER CHANCES. THIS LOOKS TO ME LIKE A
HIGH CHANCE FOR SNOW...BUT A LOWER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATION. WITH
THAT IN MIND BOOSTED THE CHANCES UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BUT
KEPT ACCUMULATIONS TO A MINIMUM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANY RESIDUAL
SNOW TAPERING OFF AND ENDING. THE COLD SURGE IS IMPRESSIVE WITH
925 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -16 TO -19 DEG C AND 850 MB BY 12Z THU.
WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AGAIN...MOST MODELS DO NOT APPEAR
TO BE COLD ENOUGH. WENT NEAR OR BELOW THE COOLEST OF THE GUIDANCE
FOR THIS PERIOD.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE
NEXT FAST-MOVING SYSTEM DUE IN ALREADY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
UPPER FLOW IS STARTING TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED BY THIS TIME SO
SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN. DESPITE THIS SHORT
WAVE BEING A BIT WEAKER...THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LOOKS SUFFICIENT
TO GENERATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN 2/3 OF MN.

DEEPER TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. WEAK WAVES MOVING EAST AHEAD OF
THIS COULD BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO NORTHERN MN...BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST AREA OUT OF THIS FOR THE MOST PART. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO LEAD TO SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

TWO BANKS OF CLOUDS IMPACTING THE TAF AREA THIS MORNING. THE FIRST
/MVFR/ IS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL WI AND WILL IMPACT KRNH AND KEAU
THIS MORNING WITH UNRESTRICTED VSBY SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL. THE SECOND
BATCH OF CLOUDS IS ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS MN SITES. THE
RAP13 0.5MAGL CONDENSATIONAL PRESSURE DEFICITS SEEM TO BE DECENTLY
HANDLING THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF CLOUDS...AND WERE THEREFORE
UTILIZED IN THE COMPOSITION OF THE 12Z TAFS. ESSENTIALLY...THIS
MEANS MVFR CIGS AND -SN HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT KEAU FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING...AND AT KRNH UNTIL 15Z. TO THE WEST...SHOULD SEE MOST SITES
WITH AT LEAST A LOW BKN VFR DECK BY LATE MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY
BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND DECREASE TO AROUND 5
KTS...AND THEN BACK FURTHER TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AS THE NEXT
TROUGH AND SNOWMAKER ARRIVES. EXPECT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH SAID
FEATURE TO REACH TO WESTERN SITES /KAXN AND KRWF/ BETWEEN 03Z AND
06Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN KSTC AND KMSP AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

KMSP...FEW-SCT CLOUDS BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000FT ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER
WILL SNEAK TOWARD THE EASTERN FRINGES OF KMSP...BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL
RETREAT BACK EASTWARD BY LATE MORNING WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT AT
KMSP. SHOULD SEE A MORE FORMIDABLE BROKEN DECK MOVE IN BY NOON...BUT
IT SHOULD BE VFR LEVEL. THE LIGHT SNOW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE IN AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH CIGS/VSBYS BECOMING MVFR
BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. NORTHWEST WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST BY
NOON...THEN FURTHER TO EAST/SOUTHEAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE.
FRI...VFR/CHC MVFR AND -SN. WINDS SOUTH 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR. WINDS NORTH 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LS






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