Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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026
FXUS63 KMPX 291052
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
552 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms today and
tonight, but most locations will stay dry. The best chance for
rain is across southwest MN today, and central MN tonight.

Early morning water vapor imagery together with GFS 500mb heights
and winds showed northwest flow with a few small scale
perturbations over the central CONUS. Meanwhile the main
shortwave was located central Manitoba, and this wave will move
south and drive a cold front through the region Wednesday night
into Thursday. A few showers and thunderstorms will develop along
and ahead of this front, but HiRes models show poor coverage so
not anticipating widespread precip.

As for changes in the forecast, removed pops across east/central
MN and western WI for today and tonight since there is little
forcing to support and convection, and the HiRes models support
this change.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

THURSDAY...The period will start with a NE-SW oriented cold front
draped across middle portions of the WFO MPX coverage area with
scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing. The front will be
ushered along by a 500mb trough axis originating from an upper
level low over Hudson Bay, extending southwest into the Dakotas.
Both the upper level trough and the surface cold front will
continue to progress southeastward during the day on Thursday,
dragging associated showers and thunderstorms with it such that by
Thursday evening, any and all lingering precipitation should be
out of the coverage area, leading to a dry nighttime period. The
trough will pivot to take a more N-S orientation as it crosses
Lake Michigan, leading to solid NW flow aloft in its wake.
Coincidentally, cooler surface high pressure will enter the region
from the northwest, leading to slight drop in temperatures while a
more noticeable drop in humidity levels will be felt.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...Persistent high pressure with northwest flow
aloft will be the rule for the end of the week. This will result
in seasonable temperatures, comfortable humidity levels and no
precipitation with little cloud cover. Highs will range through
the 70s for both days while highs range through the 50s.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A fairly more active pattern will develop
during the first half of next week. Upper level flow will be much
more zonal across the entire lower 48, allowing several weak
shortwave disturbances to fly across the region. Low level flow
will be more pronounced from the south, allowing moisture to
return to the Upper Mississippi River valley region, so any weak
wave that interacts with this additional moisture can be capable
of producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Have advertised
slight chance of precipitation for the far northern tiers Sunday
into Sunday night, then precipitation chances expand in coverage
Monday through Tuesday. Accompany the slowly growing chances of
rain will be a gradual increase in temperature as the early week
moves along. Highs will increase into the 80s with some 90s
possible by midweek in western Minnesota.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed Jun 29 2016

VFR conditions throughout. Winds will be light with a southerly
component. Later tonight a cold front will move in from the
northwest and this will be the focus for a few showers and
thunderstorms. However, coverage of storms will be scarce so did
not include mention in the taf at this time.

KMSP...
VFR conditions throughout. As mentioned above, not anticipating
widespread precip so only have vcsh. May have to include mention
of thunder by late Thursday morning, but left it out as of now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...VFR. Wind NE at 05kt.
Sat...VFR. Wind SE at 10kt.
Sun...VFR. Wind SE at 10g15kt

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JRB



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