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000
FXUS63 KMPX 131118
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
618 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and breezy with low humidity today. A bit cooler with
  slightly less wind tomorrow.

- Confidence remains high in soaking rain Monday night into Wednesday.
  Most locations should see over an inch of rain along with a
  few rumbles of thunder.

- Cooler temperatures arrive for the second half of next week
  with highs in the 40s and 50s expected. Sub-freezing lows are
  likely Thursday night and Friday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

TODAY AND SUNDAY...The main weather concern is the elevated fire
weather conditions later today across the region. Temperatures will
warm into the 80s across southwest Minnesota, with 70s elsewhere.
Humidity will fall into the 20s across the region. The HREF min RH
shows the potential for a few teens across west central Minnesota.
It will be breezy, with afternoon gusts of 20 to 30 mph from the
southwest. Given the dry conditions in place, and seasonably warm
temperatures, decided to issue a Red Flag Warning across southwest
Minnesota where the potential for downsloping could lead to warmer
and drier conditions in comparison to the rest of the region. Later
today steep lapse rates and warm air advection will lead to
isentropic ascent and showers/thunderstorms across northern
Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. For the most part these should not
affect our area, with only a 5 to 10 percent chance for
precipitation. The lone exception would be west central Wisconsin,
where a few scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible. These will
move off overnight, and for Sunday expect highs in the low 70s with
sunny skies and light north wind of 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...No significant changes from the previous
forecast. An area of showers and thunderstorms across the Dakotas
Monday morning could move into western Minnesota during the day, but
these should be on the downward trend. Monday could be dry for many
locations. Rain will lift up from the south overnight, with the
heaviest rain chances on Tuesday Tuesday afternoon. DESI output of
all 101 ensemble members does not have a dry solution at KMSP
Tuesday afternoon, so its pretty safe to lock in a rainy day.

The risk for severe storms is low. In fact, the best potential
(although small) may end up being Sunday night on the leading edge
of the steeper mid level lapse rates across western Minnesota.
Otherwise, the lack of instability really limits any strong to
severe storm potential. This looks like your classic spring time
storm system with widespread rain. As mentioned earlier, most of
this rain will fall on Tuesday. By the time the system exits on
Wednesday, a widespread 1 to 1.5 inches of rain should have fallen
across the region. A few locations that manage to get some heavier
rain showers or thunderstorms could pick up closer to 2 inches of
rain.

Looking ahead, this system will move off toward the Great Lakes on
Thursday, and cold air advection will overspread the Upper Midwest.
Depending on the clearing and surface winds, overnight lows could
drop below freezing. DESI shows the highest probability for sub-
freezing temperatures is Friday night into Saturday morning, with a
roughly 40 to 60 percent along I-90, and 60 to 80 percent along I-
94. There are a few small chances for rain or snow toward the end of
the week, but no accumulation is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR through the period. S/SE winds will establish themselves
this morning and veer to the north by midnight. Winds will
decrease by this evening and remain relatively mild on Sunday.
Intermittent mid level clouds are possible at all terminals, but
only for a brief period later this afternoon and evening.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR early, then MVFR/-RA. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. -RA likely. Wind SE 15-20G25-30kts.
WED...MVFR/IFR. -RA likely. Wind N bcmg NE 20G30kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     Blue Earth-Brown-Faribault-Freeborn-Martin-Redwood-
     Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...PV