Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 181732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1232 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Not much to discuss today and tonight. Showers are heading east
out of the area this morning, marking the beginning of a long
stretch of dry weather. Extensive cloudiness across the northern
tier of the CONUS has also been breaking up a bit overnight, so
expecting to see the sun today although some mid level clouds will
likely remain.

A very weak ribbon of vorticity will rotate around the Canadian
upper low across northern Minnesota tonight. There may be a few
showers associated with it, but that should remain north of the
area so kept PoPs near zero through the short term.

Temperatures will return closer to normal with highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s and lows in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

The longer term remains mainly dry with below normal temperatures
Thu/Fri period. Troughing over the eastern CONUS amplifies
followed by a warming trend into the weekend.

Initially...models continue to trend a short wave southeast
across South Dakota into Iowa later Wednesday/Wednesday night. The
ECMWF remains the strongest with this wave...and continues to clip
the far south with some light QPF. THe Canadian model is the same.
We will mention some small pops along the far south into Wednesday
night. Cooler air follows this system for Thursday and Thursday

Warming ensues Friday and into the weekend with another small
chance of light rain showers over the far eastern CWA into Friday WAA moves through. Upper level ridging builds over the
northern CONUS with the polar jet lifted north along the
International border for the weekend. The models do bring another
short wave into the region around the Sunday time frame. This is
expected to remain north of the area. Following this...model
trends flatten the upper ridge and drive some short wave energy
east from the trough digging back into the Pacific Northwest
Tuesday into midweek next week. Still looks warm enough for just
liquid P-type over the CWA.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A VFR period is forthcoming with only issue with the TAFs is the
timing of a cold front across the area tonight. This front is
currently up in northern MN and will slip through AXN first around
6z and EAU last shortly after 12z. This is what results in the wind
trends seen in the TAFs from west today, to WSW this evening, and
back to the NW for tomorrow. Lack of moisture behind the front that
clear through here last night will keep the front both dry and
clouds above 10k ft.

KMSP...frontal timing for MSP looks to be between 10z and 14z. Winds
will remain on the light side though and generally stay below 8kts.

Thu...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind SE 5 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind S 5 kts.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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