Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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445
FXUS63 KMPX 240529
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1229 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The mesoscale convective vortex lifting across central MN has
successfully reinvigorated convection this afternoon. Very much a
tropical-like airmass with very efficient rainfall production,
with many areas receiving rainfall rates on the order of 1 to over 2
inches per hour. Although there has been a general downward trend
in the intensity of storms over the past hour, we are still
monitoring to the west for potential new development, given the
fair amount of clearing that has occurred. If storms do develop,
damaging winds and flooding will be the biggest threats.

Clearing occurs overnight with a mild and benign day ahead for
Sunday, as highs top out in the low to middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

The long term forecast starts out on a quiet note, but then turns
active on Tuesday and stays that way for most of the upcoming
week.

Monday brings a continuance of near normal temperatures and dry
weather. By Tuesday we see westerly flow develop aloft, with
multiple embedded shortwaves bringing occasional precipitation
chances throughout the week. Temperatures will trend downward
toward values slightly below climatological normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1229 am CDT Sun Jul 24 2016

TSRA ahead of cold front in western MN are moving east near 25
knots. Storms will likely accelerate a little bit over the next
few hours as the cold front picks up speed. one to two hour tempo
groups included for sites ahead of the storms. Ceilings are low
MVFR to IFR ahead of the front and will remain that way until a
few hours after frontal passage. Sites the worst off are KRNH and
KEAU which may take until mid morning to improve to VFR. Winds
becoming NW with fropa with speeds of 10-12 knots for the mid
morning and afternoon hours along with gusts to 20 knots or so.
Diminishing wind early Sunday evening.

KMSP...TSRA moving through the Twin Cities between 08-09z. Wind
gusts up 35 knots possible with the storms. Low MVFR ceilings
will likely become IFR for a time early this morning due to the
very moist low level conditions ahead of the front. Improvement to
VFR by daybreak with increasing NW winds from mid morning on.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Winds NW 5-10 kt.
Tue...VFR. Chance p.m. TSRA. Winds SW 7-10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Chance TSRA. Winds SE 5 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...RAH



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