Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 192228
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
428 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE THE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS THIS EVENING
AND THEN CONTINUED CHILLY TEMPS THROUGH TOMORROW.

VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THAT
PASSED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
STRONG AND GUSTY WNW WINDS THROUGH MID EVENING. HOWEVER..WINDS AND
GUSTS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE WITH TIME THIS EVENING. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALSO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL
BRIEFLY BRING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO UNDER 2 MILES..BUT THESE ALSO
SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION.

THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY
LIGHTER WINDS TO SUPPORT TEMPS REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER..READINGS SHOULD NOT GET TOO OUT OF
HAND WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE. THURSDAY MAY STILL
BE A BIT BREEZY IN TIGHTER GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN CWA..BUT
WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DIE OFF TO NEAR LIGHT/VARIABLE ACROSS WRN
MINNESOTA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE COMES OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM REVOLVE AROUND MAJOR PUSH
OF WARM ADVECTION BEGINNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY..AND THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM AFFECTING MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST SUNDAY-TUESDAY.

MAJOR PUSH OF WARM AIR IS PROGGED TO SURGE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY..WITH 850
TEMPS CLIMBING FROM AROUND -10C TO AROUND +5C IN LESS THAN 24
HOURS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HINTING THAT A FAIR AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SURGE..WHICH TYPICALLY RESULTS IN
LOTS OF STRATUS/FOG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DZ/FZDZ AFTER A
SUSTAINED COLD PERIOD. WE HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST FOR LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MIGHT IN THIS DIRECTION..BUT PERHAPS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVELY AS WHAT MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. WE ARE ALSO HESITANT
TO BUY INTO THE SURFACE TEMPS WARMING AS RAPIDLY AS MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING AT THE MOMENT..WHICH MIGHT INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE EARLY PART OF SATURDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT MAJOR WAVE COMING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY. WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE PRECIP WILL
START OUT AS RAIN..BUT THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND ARCTIC AIR ONCE AGAIN
SURGES SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE OCCLUDING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME..PRECISION ON EXACT TIMING AND
AMOUNTS IS STILL HARD TO DO..BUT IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THERE IS AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
MPX CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY YET ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG NW
WINDS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SHORT WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA AS OF MIDDAY..AND THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES HAVE
TRANSLATED SOUTHWARD INTO IOWA/MISSOURI. HOWEVER..STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND A RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES..AS WELL AS SOME AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW. IN GENERAL..VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED..BUT
BRIEF PERIODS OF 3-5 MILE VISIBILITIES/MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A FEW STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH
STRONG NEAR-SURFACE INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE AND BACK TO MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION 23-03Z WITH GUSTINESS
SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. WINDS MAY INCREASE MID MORNING
THURSDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ALONG
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT SHOULD ALLOW SOME MIXING
INTO STRONGER FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

KMSP...FLURRIES AND WNW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT WILL PERSIST FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON..AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHORT
WINDOWS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING..BUT SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE
UNTIL 04-05Z TIME FRAME. WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY
CONSTANT FROM AROUND 300 DEGREES UNTIL SOMETIME LATE THIS EVENING
WHEN THEY BECOME MORE WESTERLY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THUR NIGHT...VFR. WINDS LIGHT WNW BECOMING LIGHT SE
FRI...VFR. WINDS SSE 10-15 KT.
SAT...MVFR POSSIBLE AFTER 16Z. WINDS S/SW 10-20KT.
SUN...MVFR/IFR. CHANCE OF FZDZ OR RA. WINDS SE 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$






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