Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 250851
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
351 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A VERY POWERFUL JET STREAM /150-170 KTS/ THAT WAS NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT
AND DEEPEN A SFC LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS
SFC LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WILL
AID IN GUSTY SFC WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/EC MN AND WC
WI.

INITIAL MILD TEMPS THIS MORNING WILL NOT VARY TOO MUCH TODAY AS
CAA FILTERS SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A COOL SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY
AFTN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY STILL LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE WARMEST DAYS FOR THE REST OF
OCTOBER 2014...AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM DUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ATOP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD WHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THIS TROUGH
WILL PICK UP A LOW PRES CENTER OVER ALBERTA PROVINCE AND SHIFT IT
EWD. MEANWHILE...A MORE SRN STREAM LOW PRES CENTER FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL ALSO BE PICKED UP BY THIS TROUGH...BUT THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT BOTH NRN AND SRN STREAM LOWS AS NOT
PHASING TOGETHER AS THEY SHIFT EWD SUN THRU MON. THIS SCENARIO
WILL MAINTAIN THE THINKING THAT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEAK
AND LESS WIDESPREAD ACRS THE CWFA. IN FACT...MOST OF THE PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT LOOKS TO BE OVER THE ERN
HALF OF THE CWFA WHERE MOISTURE COLUMNS WILL BE DEEPER. THE SRN
CANADIAN LOW...OVER SRN MANITOBA/ONTARIO BY MIDDAY MON...WILL
PIVOT AS IT IS NUDGED ALONG BY A CUTOFF LOW WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...FORCING THE LOW TO BECOME MORE STACKED AND WEAKENING ITS
EFFECTS FOR THE MPX CWFA LATE MONDAY INTO TUE. AGAIN...THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL BE IN ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.

THE TROUGH WILL OPEN UP BY EARLY TUE AND BECOME MORE
PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING AN EFFECTIVE END TO THE PRECIP BY LATE DAY
TUE...IF NOT EARLY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM EJECTS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE AREA WILL GET A MORE
BONA FIDE FEEL OF FALL AS COLDER CANADIAN AIR GETS A PATHWAY DOWN
TO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. PROLONGED NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH MODEST CAA SURGES WILL
DROP HIGHS TEMPS FROM THE 60S SUN-MON TO THE 40S AND 50S TUE-FRI.
LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S BY MIDWEEK AND EVEN TO THE 20S BY
LATE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME CONFLICTING IDEAS AS TO WHETHER A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRES WILL DROP SEWD THRU THE REGION AROUND THU...BUT
MOISTURE COLUMNS ARE FAIRLY SHALLOW AND THERE IS LITTLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WITH ANY SYSTEMS DEPICTED ON THE GFS/GEM. THE
MORNING RUN OF THE ECMWF BECOME HIGHLY MERIDIONAL WITH AN UPPER
LOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND LOOKS TO BE QUITE THE OUTLIER SO
HAS MUCH LESS INFLUENCE ON THIS FCST PKG. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED
TO RUN WITH A DRY FCST FROM TUE NIGHT ON THRU THE END OF THIS FCST
PKG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRETCH ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN LATE
THIS EVENING. LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN IN
THE VERY MOIST AIR ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
PRESSURE RISES AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN MN ATTM AND THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH KMSP...KRNH
AND KEAU OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
AT KRNH BY 07Z AND KEAU BY 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND
SATURDAY AT THE REMAINING TAF SITES. WINDS BECOMING WNW WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 8-12 KNOTS. WINDS ON
SATURDAY BECOMING GUSTY BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS LIKELY.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY IS
FORECAST BY THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS NW ON SATURDAY
WITH 14G22KTS AFTER 15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR EARLY. CHC MVFR/SHRA IN EVENING. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
MON...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. CHC SHRA. WINDS BCMG WNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...CHC MVFR/SHRA. WINDS W 15G25 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH







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