Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 131739
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1239 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather concerns today due to low humidity
  levels.

- Best chances for rain tonight-Thursday remain over southern-
  eastern MN into western WI.

- Temperatures to become cooler after today, including dropping
  below normal Sunday-Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Surface analysis early this morning shows a fairly nondescript
wavy surface front over the western-central Dakotas emanating
from a weak low over west-central Canada. A more well-defined
low pressure center continues to become more organized over
eastern CO/NM. This split-flow upper level design will generally
keep the Upper Midwest rather dry through the weekend, but the
more poignant of the split flow will (again) be the southern
stream as the southwest low gets impetus eastward, being kicked
away from a cutoff H5 low. For today, the benign pattern in
place combined with deep dry air will promote warm temperatures
with rather low dewpoints. While not quite as warm as yesterday,
highs will range from the upper 50s in central MN to the upper
60s near the IA border. The southern stream system will grab
plenty off the Pacific then progress eastward over the southern
tier states tonight into Thursday, taking a more northward turn
into the Ohio Valley late Thursday into Thursday night. The
northern fringes of the precipitation shield may be enough to
produce scattered rain showers over southern-eastern MN into
western WI late tonight through Thursday. That said, the bulk of
the precipitation, including thunderstorms, will remain well to
the south of the WFO MPX coverage area. Precipitation amounts
will be fairly light with this system, ranging from around a
half inch in far southeast MN to around a tenth from western WI
through the Twin Cities metro to southwest MN. With the system
gliding by, bringing in modest cold air advection and deeper
cloud cover, highs on Thursday will drop to the upper 40s to
lower 50s with similar values expected again on Friday due to
little day-to-day change in airmass characteristics.

Temperatures will continue their cooling trend for the end of
the week through early next week with the combination of the
aforementioned southern stream system bringing down one chunk of
colder air, followed by a clipper-type system swinging SE from
central Canada through the Great Lakes over the weekend. While
very little precipitation is expected from this system,
potentially a mix of a few rain/snow showers over mainly western
WI Saturday-Sunday, the main impact to sensible wx will be the
drop in temperatures to below normal values Sunday-Monday. Highs
on Saturday will fall to the 40s area-wide, followed by highs
only in the 30s area-wide Sunday-Monday. Temperatures are
expected to rebound nicely going into the middle of next week,
with highs returning to the 40s and 50s next week Tuesday-
Wednesday, along with dry conditions expected to persist.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

VFR conditions to prevail across all of the TAFs sites through the
period. Light winds out of the ENE through tonight, followed by an
increase in NE gusts (15-20 kts) by mid-morning Thursday. Incoming
low pressure system continues to trend south, such that we kept all
of the 18z TAFs dry. Based on latest hi-res guidance, the best
chance for -SHRA will be at MKT, however low-level dry air will work
against this potential. A few isolated raindrops will be possible at
MSP, RNH, and EAU, however confidence in sustained precipitation is
low at this time. BKN/OVC ceilings drop to around 10 kft into this
evening. VFR ceilings may dip as low as 5 kft by daybreak at MKT &
EAU.

KMSP...No additional concerns at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 15-25G30-35kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25-30kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

A deep dry airmass will remain across the Upper Midwest today,
again promoting low dewpoints in conjunction with continued warm
temperatures. Although highs today will be slightly lower than
yesterday, similar dewpoint values with the warm temperatures
will force minimum RH values to the 20-25 percent range, mainly
for areas near and south of Interstate 94. Though easterly winds
will remain well below thresholds needed for Red Flag criteria,
the dry airmass along with continued dry fuels will promote
elevated fire weather concerns today. Starting Thursday,
noticeably cooler air with higher dewpoint values, making for
much higher minimum RH values, along with the chance for rain
for much of the coverage area, will alleviate the fire weather
concerns going forward.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...Strus
FIRE WEATHER...JPC


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