Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 171925
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
225 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

LARGE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MUCH OF EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CONUS HAS LED TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TONIGHT DESPITE SOME BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MINNESOTA. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
FILL IN AND LOWER AGAIN THIS EVENING. SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD
HAVE JUST ABOUT COMPLETELY DISSIPATED BEFORE ROTATING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. A POTENT VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW TONIGHT. A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER AND A MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES...
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

THE LOW WILL LIFT OUT SATURDAY MORNING WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING IN BY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY BUT A
DECENT COLD POOL AND WEAK CAA OR NEUTRAL ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOW OR MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER AND A COUPLE
MINOR TEMPERATURES SWINGS...BUT OVERALL...MILD FALL WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL. BY SATURDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL BE
WELL TO THE EAST AND A WARMER WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TO FINISH
OUT THE WEEKEND. GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN LATELY - AND THE
MIXING POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON - TO GO ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...60S SEEM LIKE A SAFE BET IN MINNESOTA WITH MID TO UPPER
50S IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. DOWN-SLOPING OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE COULD
MEAN A FEW SITES IN WEST CENTRAL MN MAKE A RUN AT 70.

ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND
PASS QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN BY WEDNESDAY. WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO WARM WITH
TEMPS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND HOW MUCH THE
POST-COLD FRONTAL AIR MODIFIES...BUT AT THIS TIME THE COLDEST
POCKET OF AIR SLIDES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE ALSO MIGHT THEN
BE TOO COOL WITH TEMPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

ASIDE FROM A FEW HOURS OF VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR
EVENING...MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
MORNING SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER WESTERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN SATURDAY
LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS TO START...BUT THERE ARE MANY REPORTS OF
MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL ROTATE BACK IN THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH CIGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 1700 FT TONIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...BORGHOFF







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