Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 151039
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
539 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN DEALS WITH THE HEIGHTEN FIRE DANGER WHICH WILL
BE DISCUSS MORE IN THE FIRE WX SECTION BELOW.

A WEAK CIRCULATION FROM A DECAYING UPPER LOW WAS NOTED IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. A MORE POTENT UPPER LOW
CONTINUED TO DIG SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS SYSTEM IN
THE ROCKIES PIVOTS EAST-SE AND EXPANDS TO THE EAST...THE WEAK
UPPER LOW IN NEBRASKA WILL GET ABSORBED AND LIFT OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...MUCH DRIER E-SE FLOW ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS
MOST OF MN/WI. ONLY THE FAR SW PART OF MN WILL SEE SOME INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AS BOTH ISOLD -SHRA IN NORTHERN MO...AND 85H MOISTURE
BEGINS TO LIFT ACROSS IA/NE AND INTO SW MN/EASTERN SD BY LATER
TODAY/OVERNIGHT. 85H MOISTURE ACTUALLY INCREASES QUITE A BIT LATER
TONIGHT AS THE LLJ BEGINS TO ADVECT HIGHER MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. BASED ON ELEVATED WEAK INSTABILITY ABV 85H
AND SOME EVIDENCE OF A STRONGER LLJ...PARTS OF CENTRAL MN MAY SEE
SOME ISOLD -SHRA DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE
HIRES MODELS INDICATED A BAND OF -SHRA DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
MN TOWARD MIDNIGHT...AND QUICKLY EXPANDS NORTHWARD INTO THE NE BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY...WILL FEATURE DRY WX AS AN UPPER LVL LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ROTATES OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION AND MODEST UPR LEVEL
RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A MORE PROMINENT UPR LVL LOW WILL BE THE LEADING FEATURE...
FORMING OUT OF A LONGWAVE TROF MOVING ONSHORE W-CENTRAL CANADA AND
DIGGING INTO A CUTOFF LOW OVER S-CENTRAL INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS FEATURE WILL THEN ALLOW SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO ROTATE AROUND
IT WHILE A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE WRN CONUS AND
SHIFTS THRU THE REGION...PRODUCING PRECIPITATION FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS WEEK...AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS
STAGNANT OVER THE SOUTHWEST...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N THROUGH THE
REGION TDA INTO THU WHILE A CDFNT REMAINS STALLED OVER THE PLAINS.
COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE...WARM AND PRECIP-FREE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACRS THE REGION THU THRU SAT. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID-TO-UPR 60S WITH MOCLR SKIES THU-FRI...THEN INCRG
CLOUDS WITH NEGLIGIBLE TEMP ADVECTION AND THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPR
RIDGE WILL NUDGE HIGHS ON SAT BACK DOWN INTO THE LOW-MID 60S.

BY EARLY SUNDAY MRNG...A SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH THRU THE
AREA...BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP-FREE PERIOD FOR THE REGION.
COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH PERIOD OF RAIN SHWRS...AND OCNL SNOW SHOWERS
FOR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA AT TIMES NEAR FREEZING...WILL BE THE
RULE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF
DURING ANY OF THESE PERIODS BUT THERE IS AT LEAST GROWING CONFIDENCE
OF MULTIPLE DAYS OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. AS THE UPR LOW FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPANDS OVER N-CENTRAL CONUS AND GREAT LAKES
AREAS...COOLER AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE REGION WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

NO CHGS TO CURRENT TAFS WITH SE WINDS INCREASING IN THE NEXT FEW
HRS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS IN THE WESTERN PART OF MN...AND UP
TO 22 KTS IN EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI. WIND SPDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING WITH CIGS AOA 5K DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

KMSP...

NO CHGS TO CURRENT TAF WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SE BY
15-17Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS DURING THE AFTN. SPDS WILL
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 12 KTS AFT 0Z...WITH LIGHTER WINDS THURSDAY
MORNING FROM THE SSW/SW. VFR CIGS EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU EVENING...VFR. WINDS W 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. ISOLD -SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. SHRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN CRITICAL ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MN AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WC WI FROM LACK OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE PAST FEW MONTHS...COMBINED WITH RECENT
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. RH FIELDS RECENTLY HAVE
DROPPED TO DESERT LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF WC/CENTRAL MN WHERE THESE
VALUES FELL BLW 10% AT THE SFC. TONIGHT/S RH FIELDS HAVE NOT
RECOVERED EITHER WHICH MAKES FOR EVEN MORE PROBLEMS ONCE MIXING
DEVELOPS THIS MORNING/AFTN. BASED ON TEMPS RISING INTO THE 60S AND
DEW PTS LOWERING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...SFC HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 20%...WITH UPPER TEENS IN PORTIONS OF
WC WI. THE ADDED AFFECT OF GUSTY WINDS WILL AID IN EVEN MORE
DRYING OF FUEL MOISTURES. THEREFORE...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED TODAY FOR A LARGE AREA OF WC/CENTRAL MN AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF WC WI.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ041>045-047>050-054>056.

WI...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     WIZ014>016-023>028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JLT
FIRE WEATHER...JLT



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