Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 170921
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
421 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OBVIOUS IN BOTH
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REFLECTIVITY OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. A
LOOP OF THE REFLECTIVITY REVEALS THE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE ROTATING
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND INTO WISCONSIN. THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW /EAST OF THE UPPER LOW/ IS WELL
EAST OF THE FA AT THIS TIME.  BEING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LOW...TODAY WILL BRING QUITE A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY
WHERE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHED THE LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FA. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...OVERCAST SKIES...AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS CAN ALL BE EXPECTED TODAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ALMOST 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS EARLY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RECOVER 5 DEGREES OR SO.  WITH THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVING IN...NW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER
30 MPH /HIGHEST WEST...LOWEST EAST/ ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
THE POPS WERE LARGELY UNCHANGED...JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
COVERAGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DEVELOPING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FA /CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI/...AS THIS AREA LOOKS TO BE THE
FOCUS OF FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES EAST...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST.  THE FA SHOULD BE ESSENTIALLY PRECIP FREE AFTER 00Z WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE IN A SMALL PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL
WI.

THE MAIN CHANGE THAT WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND THE
OVERCAST SKIES OUT SEVERAL HOURS.  LATEST GUIDANCE HAS LOCKED ON TO
THE IDEA OF MOST OF THE AREA REMAINING LOCKED UNDER BROKEN TO
OVERCAST SKIES RIGHT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MEANING THE CLEARING
LINE OF THE CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DELAYED
BY SEVERAL HOURS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. I SEE NO REASON TO
DISAGREE WITH THIS SENTIMENT AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE CYCLONICALLY
CURVED FLOW LINGERING THROUGH THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF ON A COOL
NOTE...AND THEN A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND
MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

SATURDAY SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

ON SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
MANTITOBA. TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60-70 DEGREE RANGE OVER ALL BUT THE
WI PORTION OF THE AREA. THE AFORMENTIONED FEATURE DIVES SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
DID INCLUDE 20 POPS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 /EAU CLAIRE/...WHERE THE
FORCING/MOISTURE IS BETTER.

AN OMEGA-BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS BY MONDAY...AND PERSISTS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE.

BY LATE NEXT WEEK...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE. TEMPORAL UNCERTAINTIES ARE STILL
NOTABLE...BUT GFS AND ECMWF AGREEMENT WAS SUFFICIENT TO HOLD ONTO
A 20 POP FOR THURSDAY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

AS A CDFNT CONTINUES TO PUSH THRU WRN WI DURG THE EARLY MRNG
HRS...STRONG WLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT THRU THE FIRST HALF
OF FRIDAY...GRADUALLY INCRG IN SPEED. SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAY WELL
REACH 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO AND EXCEEDING 30 KT...PARTICULARLY
LATE FRI MRNG THRU FRI AFTN. STRONGEST WINDS WILL AFFECT THE WRN
MN TAF SITES...BUT STRONG W TO NW WINDS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY IMPACT
ALL TAF SITES. OTHER MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MVFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL
SLIDE SEWD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CDFNT AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND
THE WRN FRINGES OF A TIGHTLY WOUND UPR LVL LOW DROPPING SE THROUGH
THE REGION. MVFR CIGS...DROPPING AS LOW AS 2 KFT BY AROUND
DAYBREAK...WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IF NOT THRU
00Z TMRW. CONFIDENCE ON THE DURATION OF THE MVFR CIGS IS NOT ALL
THAT GREAT AND HAVE INDICATED A RISE TO VFR CIGS BY LATE TMRW
AFTN. HOWEVER...CONDS MAY WELL DEVELOP SUCH THAT MVFR CIGS REMAIN
IN PLACE THE ENTIRE DAY TMRW. AS FOR PRECIP DURG THE DAY
TMRW...BEST CHCS ARE AT KEAU AND CONSISTENCY IN SHORT-TERM MODELS
FORCES ITS INCLUSION FROM LATE MRNG INTO MID-AFTN. NO VSBY
REDUCTION XPCTD. ALL OTHER TAF SITES LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AS PRECIP
WILL BE TOO FAR N AND E.

KMSP...NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS NOR PRECIP EXPECTED. STRONG WLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SPEED THRU MIDDAY
TMRW BEFORE SETTLING DOWN TMRW EVE. MVFR CEILINGS LOOK TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLY EARLIER THAN THE 10Z
TIME CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. AM NOT EXPECTING CEILINGS TO DROP LOWER
THAN 1700...BUT THAT THRESHOLD WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JPC






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