Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 171806
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
106 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Two main issues during this short-term period: elevated heat index
values, especially in western MN, and potential for strong/severe
storms tonight in central MN.

Surface analysis shows high pressure centered over the western
Great Lakes with a low pressure center developing over central
Manitoba province and its associated cold front extending
southwest through Montana and Idaho. A leading warm front is
pushing east through the Dakotas. Aloft, an upper level dome of
high pressure is centered over the central Plains with a ridge
axis extending northeast into the Great Lakes. In addition, an
upper level low is rotating slowly eastward through central
Alberta province with a primary upper level trough on its southern
periphery. The warm front will punch through the western portions
of the WFO MPX coverage area this morning and continue shifting
east into WI by this evening. The associated cold front will be
slow to follow, only making it to northwest MN by this evening
then take up a position from the Arrowhead to west-central MN by
daybreak Tuesday morning. At the same time, the upper level flow
will become primarily zonal across the area while the upper level
low in central Canada broadens, making its trough feature slow to
shift east. The warm sectoring will not only result in a
significant rise in temperatures but also dewpoints as Pacific
moisture rides in with the front and a plume of moisture from
around the upper level ride is shunted northward from the Deep
South. These features will allow dewpoints to climb to around 70
degrees while max temps out west surge to near 100 degrees (with
highs in the 80s in western WI through eastern MN. This
combination will nudge heat index values into the low 100s in a
handful of counties in far western MN so have opted to issue a
Heat Advisory. As for the precipitation aspect of the incoming
surface fronts, the combination of heat/humidity will undoubtedly
surge instability levels across the area, particularly in western
MN where convective temperatures will be reached and CINH is
eliminated. Strong heating will likely result in isolated to
scattered thunderstorms in western and northern portions of the
coverage area, eventually spreading east but generally remaining
north of the I-94 corridor. With bulk shear in the 30-40 kt range
and modest veering going upwards, some storms may become
strong/severe with the main hazards being large hail and damaging
winds. Not looking for a lot of coverage in the coverage area
until nearly daybreak tomorrow morning but the potential for
severe weather will remain due to the highly unstable airmass and
available frontal lift.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

The forecast concerns in the longer term remain severe weather and
heavy rain threat through Tuesday through Thursday as the region
remains on the favored location of quasi stationary boundary.

For Tuesday, frontal boundary sags southeast during the day and
should remain the focus of thunderstorms development much of the
day as it moves through. The 00Z NAM was rather impressive with
developing a MCS over the central Dakotas and racing it east over
the cwa Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. The GFS and ECMWF
are not so aggressive with that type of development. Will likely
see broken convection develop along the front and move southeast
with possible bowing segments generating damaging winds. With the
degree of instability and shear and the possibility of a short
wave moving with this system, the slight risk DAY2 for severe
storms looks good at this time. There will be some hydro concern
with any real organized acitivity with PW`s over 2 inches and
development of low level jet into Tuesday night. It appears the
surface boundary will drop into far southern Minnesota and will
be on the edge of the mid level cap and very unstable airmass.
Development of a MCS is possible riding across southern MN along
the instability gradient. At the moment we have some 1 inch plus
totals from Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday night over south central
MN. If an organized system does develop, we could certainly see
some 2-3 inch totals during the period.

Wednesday morning should be a break in overall activity with
chances into again to the west ahead of the surface boundary,
which should lie close to the MN/IA border by late in the day.
Very unstable airmass in place with development of 50kt low level
jet by early evening, we should see another complex develop
generating damaging wind, hail and torrential/possible flash
flooding into Wednesday day. This would focus once again across
about the southern third of the area. The threat will also be
driven by the previous nights convection.

There could be another round of convection Thursday night into
Friday as well. The GFS keeps the area near the boundary through
this week. Finally, models have been trending the Canadian trough
to drop southeast over the western Great Lakes and this should
finally give the southern push to the boundary by late in the
weekend and early next week. THis should provide somewhat cooler
and drier air.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Main concern this period is with any thunder potential tonight
into Tuesday morning and then Tuesday afternoon for MSP. In
addition high levels of low level moisture do result in a
stratus/br threat for mainly WI terminals tonight. We did delay
the mention any TS at MPX terminals until after 00z, with greatest
TS coverage through tonight expected across northeast MN into
northwest WI, we`ll just have to watch how close this activity
gets to RNH/EAU tonight, but for now will keep it dry. Tuesday
morning, the front currently in the Dakotas will be working into
western MN as a shortwave currently in Utah arrives as well, less
confidence on how much if any TS there will be in the morning, but
confidence is high by the afternoon that we will get widespread
TS to develop on the front.

KMSP...There are small chances for thunder before Tuesday
afternoon (between 12z and 18z Tuesday), but signal for TS is
greatest in the afternoon, so that was when we brought in the
prevailing SHRA mention. Looks like we should see fairly
widespread storms develop along the boundary by the afternoon.
These storm will be producing torrential rainfall and erratic
winds, but a 24+ hours out, no need to sweat those details yet.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed...VFR. Chc MVFR/TSRA. Winds SE 5-10 kts.
Thu...VFR. Chc MVFR/TSRA late. Winds lgt and vrb.
Fri...VFR. CHc MVFR/TSRA. Winds SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ047-048-054>057-
     064-065-073.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...MPG



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