Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 231759
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1259 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AND CLEARING
IS MARCHING EASTWARD. ALL BUT EASTERN MN AND WISCONSIN WAS CLEAR
AND EXPECT ALL OF MN TO BE CLEAR BY MID AFTERNOON. MIXING WILL BE
DEEPEST ACROSS THE WEST...SO LOOKING FOR LOWER 70S THERE
TODAY...PERHAPS MID 70S LOCALLY. LIMITED MIXING AND COOLER LOW
LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS OUR EAST WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 60S IN EASTERN
MN...AND THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WESTERN WI. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD
FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW PATCHES OF FOG
POSSIBLE. FRIDAY WILL BRING SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

DUE TO A SLOWER AND LESS PROGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...SOME ADDITIONAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES LOOK IN STORE FOR THE
EXTENDED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD AS A WMFNT WILL BE E OF THE AREA WHILE ITS
ASSOCIATED CDFNT...BOTH ATTENDANT FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER
S-CENTRAL CANADA...WILL BE W OF THE AREA. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
COMBINED WITH LLVL SWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE TO THE UPR
60S IN WRN WI TO LOW-MID 70S IN THE MN PORTION OF THE MPX CWFA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GO DOWN FROM HERE AS THE CDFNT PUSHES THRU
LATE DAY FRI FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY CDFNT FRI NIGHT...THE LEADING
EDGE OF STRONG CAA AT THE SFC ALONG WITH NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A
RIDGE FORMING OVER THE NRN PLAINS. NOTICEABLE DROPS IN H85
TEMPS...IN SOME AREAS AS MUCH AS 6-8 DEG C...ARE EVIDENT AMONG
GFS/EC/NAM/GEM FRI INTO SAT WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS ON SAT
RANGING FROM 60-65 ACRS THE CWFA ON SAT. THOUGH MODELS SHOW THE
RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTING EWD GOING INTO SUN...IT LOOKS TO COLLAPSE ON
ITS WAY TWD THE GREAT LAKES...ENDING ANY INDICATION OF A POTENTIAL
WARMING TREND FOR SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...THE
COLLAPSING RIDGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY DEEP LONGWAVE TROFFING FOR
THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. A LEE-SIDE ROCKIES LOW PRES CENTER
WILL BE PICKED UP BY THIS DIGGING TROUGH MON INTO TUE...SHOVING
THE SYSTEM NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THERE ARE SOME
SLIGHT VARIANCES IN THE STORM TRACK AMONG THE LONGER-TERM
OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL ROUNDS
OF -RA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING. THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH FALLING H5 HEIGHTS WILL SPELL FALLING TEMPS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCLUDING HIGHS IN THE 50-60S MON THAT WILL DROP
TO THE 40S-50S TUE-WED AS CAA RESUMES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING MOVING WEST TO EAST. MOST AREAS
WEST OF A STC TO MSP TO MKT LINE ARE CLEAR. EXPECT ALL OF EAST
CENTRAL MN TO BE CLEAR BY 20Z. THE WEAK FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA IS IN NOW IN WESTERN WI...WITH MVFR
CIGS AND SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT. SOME IMPACT TO WESTERN WI TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z EXCEPT EAU WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED THROUGH 22Z.
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH FOG BECOMING A
CONCERN AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST SOUNDINGS...SO
ADDED FOG FOR THE WESTERN WI TAF SITES. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG AT
AXN/STC. MSP/RWF SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FOG...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES AND CIGS LIFT FRIDAY MORNING OVER WRN WI WE
WILL SEE VFR THROUGH AT LAST SATURDAY WITH MINIMAL CLOUDS. WINDS
TO REMAIN LIGHT. A WEAK FRONT T PASS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THAT MAY SUPPORT SOME A FEW CLOUDS AT THE 12-15K LEVEL.

KMSP...CIGS ARE DONE FOR THE AFTERNOON. SKC WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG IN THE MN RIVER VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WILL NOT
IMPACT THE FIELD IN TERMS OF ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTION...HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NO RESTRICTION. OTHERWISE SKC FRIDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS W-NW AT 10-15KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR/-SHRA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS BECOMING SE AT
08-14KTS IN AFTERNOON.
MON...CHC MVFR/-SHRA WINDS E-NE AT 08-13KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRL
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DRL/JPC






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