Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 081111
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
511 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

DESPITE THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH TOGETHER WITH LIGHT
FALLING SNOW PRODUCED GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE WIND GUSTS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT BY NO MEANS GOING AWAY. THEREFORE EXPECT
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THE WIDESPREAD
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING.

A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH H850 TEMPS
AROUND -15C. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
UP OVERNIGHT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT LATER
TONIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE PATTERN OF NW FLOW ALOFT WITH A TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE-
TO-END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY LARGE
SYSTEMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...THUS A PERIOD OF RATHER DRY
SEVERAL DAYS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH PROMOTING EFFECTIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE GFS/NAM/EC ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW VARIATIONS IN THE
DEPTH AND LOCATION OF AN ERN CONUS TROF IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME
ALONG WITH THE LOCATION/ALIGNMENT OF A VERY NARROW SWATH OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE W. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE ALSO
VARIATIONS IN DEPICTING ANY POTENTIAL H7-H5 SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE
SEWD WITHIN THE FAIRLY PERSISTENT UPR LVL NW FLOW AND HOW THEY
INTERACT WITH ANY RELATIVELY DEEPER MOISTURE...IF THERE IS ANY
INTERACTION AT ALL...TO PRODUCE -SHSN WITH BARELY MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...AM OPTING TO MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE IN FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY WELL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIP OVER THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST. ATTM...POPS ARE CAPPED AT 30
PERCENT FOR SUN INTO MON. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK...WITH POSSIBLY A WARMUP
COMING VALENTINES DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST THINKING HASN/T CHANGED MUCH FROM EARLIER ISSUANCE. MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD... ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THEY WILL SCATTER OUT LATER IN
THE DAY OR DURING THE EVENING. CONTINUED TO GO WITH A PESSIMISTIC
FORECAST IN THAT RESPECT... WITH THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING TRAPPED
BENEATH THE INVERSION INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW STILL
OVER THE REGION. VISIBILITIES REMAIN A TOUGH CALL... BUT LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL MAINLY REMAIN AOA 2SM IN FALLING SNOW... WITH
OCCASIONAL BLOWING OR BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW PERHAPS TAKING THEM
BLO 1SM AT TIMES.

KMSP...CEILINGS LOOK TO BE TEMPERAMENTAL FOR THE INITIAL 3 HOURS
OR SO... ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD GENERALLY BE MVFR. VISIBILITIES
COULD OCCASIONALLY DIP BELOW 2SM... BUT UNLESS BLOWING SNOW
BECOMES MORE OF AN ISSUE IT APPEARS THEY WON/T DO SO FREQUENTLY.
KEPT CEILING IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD... BUT AS MENTIONED
ABOVE... IT IS POSSIBLE THEY COULD SCATTER OUT SOONER AS LAMP AND
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST. BUT... IN THESE SITUATIONS THEY OFTEN STICK
AROUND LONGER THAN PROGGED... AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY
SUGGEST THAT WILL BE THE CASE THIS TIME.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MONDAY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. NORTHWEST
WIND 15 TO 25 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 KT DECREASING TO LESS
THAN 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW. VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT
BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 KT.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ041>045-
     047>070-075>078-084-085.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ073-074-082-083-
     091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...


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