Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 132249
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
549 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

THINGS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR A CHILLY FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY ALONG THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED CU ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA... WITH MORE VIGOROUS CU AND SHOWERS OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND CANADA. THE SHOWERS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE
AREA THIS EVENING... BUT THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD KEEP
THINGS FROM GETTING TOO FAR INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER... ON MONDAY WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WARM BENEATH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
COLD POOL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE LAPSE RATES LOOK STEEPEST AND BOUNDARY
LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE MOST PREVALENT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME THUNDER IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON... BUT LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW SINCE IT STILL LOOKS MARGINAL
IN TERMS OF MLCAPE AND WHETHER THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL WILL MANAGE TO
GET TO SUFFICIENTLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO GET ENOUGH MIXED PHASE
HYDROMETEORS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES... IT STILL APPEARS THAT
WE/LL HAVE A SHOT AT BREAKING RECORDS FOR LOW-HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR
MSP THAT VALUE IS 68... SO THE CURRENT FORECAST OF 65 WOULD EASILY
BREAK IT. THE CIPS ANALOGS SHOW THE MOST RECENT ANALOG IN TERMS OF
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WAS JULY 17 2009... WHICH LED TO HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S... VERY SIMILAR TO TOMORROW/S FORECAST VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED WITH THE WEATHER THIS WEEK...AS THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED FLOW TO START THE WEEK BECOMES LESS SO...THOUGH WE WILL BE
MAINTAINING THE GENERAL IDEA OF RIDGING WEST/TROUGHING EAST...BUT WE
WILL SEE OUR FLOW GO FROM A VERY COOL NRLY TO A MORE MILD WNW
DIRECTION.

ANY ACTIVITY WE SEE MONDAY SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
WE LOSE BOTH DIURNAL HEATING AND GET WITHIN THE SUBSIDENCE REGION OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. HAVE TUESDAY DRY FOR NOW...BUT CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN WRN WI TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
WHERE COOL/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. OTHERWISE THE
REST OF THE WORK WEEK WE WILL JUST BE SLOWLY SLIDING HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SFC WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY GRADUAL
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPS...THOUGH WE STILL DO NOT LOOK TO
GET TEMPERATURES BACK TO OUR NORMAL LOW TO MID 80S...BUT AT LEAST WE
WILL BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL AS OPPOSED TO 20 DEGREES SHORT
LIKE ON MONDAY.

GFS/ECMWF SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD WITH OUR NEXT POTENTIAL PRECIP
MAKER OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE FORM OF A COLD FROPA. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE GFS HANGS THIS FRONT
BACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OVER THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE UPPER MS
VALLEY DRY. FOR NOW...KEPT THE BLENDED FORECAST IN PLACE...WITH SOME
CHANCE POPS NOTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...IN LINE WITH WHAT THE
ECMWF SHOWS.

GOING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK...THE ECMWF/GFS REALLY CRANK UP THE
STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH BOTH
MODELS SHOW 600 DM H5 HEIGHTS DEVELOPING NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THIS RIDGE BUILDS...WE COULD FINALLY GET
TEMPERATURES IN HERE THAT MAY CLASSIFY AS A HEAT WAVE. HOWEVER...WE
HAVE SEEN THE MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS SHOW THESE WARM UPS OUT
THERE IN THE 10 DAY OUT PERIOD BEFORE THIS SUMMER...ONLY TO GET
STUCK WITH MORE OF THE SAME...NW FLOW AND TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL
AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

A RELATIVELY BENIGN NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE TAF AREA WITH
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND DECREASING WINDS...BUT LOW-END BKN-
OVC CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE PICTURE ON
MONDAY MORNING...AS THE UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO DROPS OVER
MN/WI. THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE THE MOST
CONCENTRATED OVER EAST CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...BUT ALL SITES WARRANT A VCSH
MENTION. COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS...BUT SAID CONDITIONS WOULD BE FLEETING. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY ON MONDAY...GENERALLY INCREASING TO SUSTAINED 14-18
KTS WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 25-28 KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 12
KTS AFTER 00Z TUESDAY AND CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL SCATTER OUT.

KMSP...
FEW-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING BKN BY 14Z MONDAY
AND HOVERING JUST ABOVE THE VFR LEVEL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY LIMIT VSBYS TO MVFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS SUSTAINED
12G18KTS DEVELOP BY 15Z...THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO 18G25KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS DECREASE BELOW 10KTS AFTER 02Z AND CLOUDS/SHOWERS
DIMINISH.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUESDAY...VFR. WIND NW 5 TO 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. WIND NNW 5 KTS.
THURSDAY...VFR. WIND SW 5 TO 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TRH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS





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