Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 171154
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
654 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for elevated fire weather conditions through early
  next week due to winds and low RH values.

- Breezy northwest winds with sporadic gusts up to 35mph today.

- Precipitation chances return Thursday into Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 409 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Current observations reveal chilly temperatures in the low to
mid 20s and wind chills in the single digits and teens. Radar
highlights a few areas of flurries & snow showers moving across
central & southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin this morning.
These flurries/snow showers will stick around through the first
half of Sunday as the stratus layer remains comfortably in the
DGZ before tapering off this afternoon. Any travel impacts
should be marginal as little to no accumulation is expected
today. It`s one of the few times it actually feels like Winter
this season but it only took until mid-March. Northwest winds
are expected to be slightly weaker today with sustained winds of
15 to 20 mph with sporadic gusts up to 35 mph. Wind chill
temperatures remain brisk, in the 20s, and high temperatures top
out in the low 30s this afternoon. Today`s a great candidate to
stay inside if you`re able to. Winds begin to decrease
overnight into Monday as the sfc low exits into the eastern
Great Lakes. Fire weather concerns remain elevated due to the
dry fuels and low RH values, but they will remain out of Red
Flag Warning territory. Northwest winds will be 5 to 10 mph
lighter and our min RH values bottom out in the 35 to 40% range
due to the colder temperatures this afternoon versus yesterday.

The upper level pattern upstream remains similar to yesterday
morning with an impressive 500mb ridge across the PAC NW and a
closed 500mb low in the desert SW. Looking downstream there is
troughing digging into the eastern CONUS which should persist
through the upcoming week. Guidance continue in reasonably good
agreement for the majority of the week ahead. The broad ridging
across the western NOAM will position us in northwest flow to
start the week. This will keep the below normal air with us
through the early part of the week. Highs Monday will be in the
mid to upper 30s with northwest winds finally relenting. Tuesday
will be the outlier for the forecast period. A quick moving
system will move through the northern Great Lakes bringing
southwestern flow & WAA over MN and WI. Highs will range in the
mid 40s to low 50s with gusty southwest winds making it another
day with fire weather concerns. We`ll see elevated fire weather
conditions with minRH values in the mid 20% range and near wind
advisory criteria gusts through Tuesday afternoon. We`ll snap
back to colder than normal temperatures Wednesday into next
weekend on the back side of this system as northwest flow aloft
will look to reestablish itself.

Our attention turns to Thursday and our next chance for
precipitation. It`s important to note that there remains a
significant amount of uncertainty in timing and placement of
several upper-level features that will impact where the
precipitation falls Thursday afternoon. Confidence is beginning
to increase as guidance is in reasonable agreement for a
shortwave ejecting out of the northern Rockies and into the
northern Plains Thursday. Low level WAA will ramp up ahead of
the shortwave across the Dakotas and Minnesota. This will cause
the 850mb temperature gradient to tighten as the northern air
mass has temps -15 to -20C along the international border and
over the Great Lakes region. The mild air advecting northward
will push 0 to +5C air into extreme southern South Dakota and
northern Iowa. The result is a tight 850mb temperature gradient
to our southwest across central South Dakota and southwest
Minnesota. The 700mb gradient is placed off to the northeast
across western and southern Minnesota. We`ll likely see a broad
area of light precipitation develop across the region thanks to
favorable isentropic upglide in the "warm" sector. There will
likely be a band of heavier precipitation embedded within the
broad lighter precipitation where the narrow region of low level
FGEN with a narrow area low level FGEN enhances forcing ahead
of approaching shortwave. The GFS remains the most bullish with
a band of 0.25" to 0.50" QPF across portions of central and
southern Minnesota while the ECMWF has a band of 0.10" to 0.25"
from western to southern Minnesota. NBM PoPs reflect the
reasonable agreement in guidance and have trended into the 50 to
70% range for Thursday afternoon. You may have piece things
together already but the thermal profile will support all snow
precipitation type as this precipitation is falling. There is
enough uncertainty on where this Goldilocks zone sets up
Thursday with some guidance placing the area of snow to our
north across northern Minnesota and some placing it across SW MN
through northern Iowa. This uncertainty is justified as timing
of any one feature could cause a notable shift in where the
precipitation falls. This system will have the potential to
produce an band of accumulating snow across the region.

Following this system, we`ll see a more active period of weather
through weekend. Ensemble guidance is advertising a deep trough
digging into the West Coast next weekend, with the potential for
a more significant system to develop Lee of the Rockies. This
system will likely track through the central Plains but where it
tracks after is highly variable at this time. Some models keep
it south of the area placing us in the cold sector while others
track it through the Dakotas placing us in the warm sector. The
important thing to take away is that there is a strong signal
for a system in the March 23rd to 25th time frame for the Upper
Midwest. The large amount of variability will persist, but a
more active pattern should settle in for the 2nd half of March.
Any precipitation, rain or snow, would be greatly beneficial for
the region as drought conditions continue to worsen. &&

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Ceilings will vary 025-035 for the first few hours, bouncing
between VFR and MVFR in northwest flow. In addition, occasional
flurries/-SHSN are likely for most locations but are not
expected to produce visibility restrictions nor cause any
appreciable impacts. Ceilings will linger into the late
afternoon to early evening hours before diminishing to mid-level
SCT coverage and potentially upper level cirrus by daybreak
Monday. Winds will continue to be breezy/gusty from the
northwest throughout this TAF duration.

KMSP...Occasional flurries are possible through late morning but
no accumulations nor significant impacts are expected. Ceilings
not likely to drop to MVFR this morning but cannot be ruled out
altogether. Clouds will diminish this evening through overnight
tonight. NW winds look to finally diminish to close to 10kts
late tonight through Monday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25-30kts.
WED...VFR. Winds NW 10-15kts.
THU...MVFR-IFR likely. -SN likely. Wind E 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JPC


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