Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 262340
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
640 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow will continue in parts of eastern Minnesota and
  western Wisconsin through this evening.

- Much cooler air returns tonight through Wednesday night, which
  could lead to a flash freeze scenario after a couple days of
  liquid precipitation.

- Temperatures warm back into the 40s and 50s for highs later
  this week, with increased rain/snow/freezing drizzle chances
  over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

It`s been a busy week leading up to (and during) this record-
breaking spring storm. Kudos to everyone involved with the
forecasting and distribution of weather information during this
event - it takes a team and we are proud to be part of this
community! We are now in the final hours as the system gradually
diminishes and tracks northeastward into Canada. An additional inch
or two is possible, however the main impacts will come from reduced
visibilities with blowing snow and sneaky ice-covered surfaces
underneath the fresh layer of 2-4 inches of snow.

Visible satellite highlights the impressive stretch of cloud cover
associated with our spring system making its way out of the Upper
Midwest, with some clear skies starting to poke through in western
Minnesota. Clouds will clear out across Minnesota and Wisconsin as a
surface high pressure replaces the exiting system. Most locations
will drop into the teens tonight, bringing wind chills into the
single digits across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, and
below zero for western Minnesota. The breezy W/NW winds will help
keep our temperatures below freezing through Thursday afternoon. The
March sun angle should be enough to lead to some melting during the
day tomorrow, which would end up refreezing overnight. This could
result in another messy morning commute across the area tomorrow and
Thursday.

Slight upper level ridging will build across the central CONUS
Thursday into Friday, leading to a rebound in temps. A shortwave
embedded on the backside of the ridge will look to bring a shot at
precip Friday morning into Saturday (30-60% PoPs). The latest suite
of models hint at the potential (~20-30%) for freezing rain to fall
as the system moves across the Dakotas/Minnesota border. This looks
reasonable based on the 850hPa warm nose placed over a shallow layer
of cold air. The threat diminishes as the system tracks further
east with soundings show a larger variety of possible outcomes.
Outside of the freezing rain/drizzle, a rain/snow mix is the
most likely outcome Friday and Saturday. Overall, QPF will be
light with the system with only a tenth or two expected.

There will be a brief lull Saturday before another pronounced trough
builds over the western CONUS. Rain/snow chances are highest (70%)
for southern Minnesota, but there continues to be too much
variability in the track of the low to be able to say how much of an
impact it`ll have across Minnesota and Wisconsin. As of right now,
the system is favored to most likely to track over southern Iowa and
Illinois.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

The story of this period will be gradual improvement. Our snow
system will gradually move out this evening into early tonight.
As it moves out visibility will clear back to P6SM. Ceilings
will remain in the low VFR to high MVFR region this evening and
tonight. Clearing starting in southwest Minnesota and spreading
on Wednesday afternoon. Winds will remain elevated overnight,
but should calm some by Wednesday with gusts more around 20
knots.


KMSP... Snow should be coming to an end at the terminal this
evening with just a few more periods of snow showers possible.
MVFR ceilings expected to persist through the morning.
Improvement to VFR expected later in the morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-RASN. Wind E 15-20 kts.
SAT...Chc MVFR early, then VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-
     Benton-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-
     Kanabec-Le Sueur-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-
     Sherburne-Washington-Wright.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Pierce-
     Polk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...NDC


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