Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 261724
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1224 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/EASTERN CONUS WILL MOVE A BIT
FURTHER EAST TODAY.  THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
EAST. THE FAR EASTERN CWA IS NEAR THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOW
CLOUDS/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAS
EARLY THIS MORNING.  LIGHT WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD
SOME PATCHY FOG...MAINLY IN WEST CENTRAL WI AND ALONG THE RIVER
VALLEYS EARLY AS WELL. OTHER THAN THAT...SOME SMOKE IS STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION TODAY...BUT APPEARS TO BE A THIN LAYER AND
RATHER HIGH.  STILL SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 70S.

THE WEATHER MAKER TO COME BEYOND THIS PERIOD IS LIFTING NORTHEAST
OVER UTAH/ARIZONA REGION THIS MORNING.  IT WILL MOVE OVER
WYOMING/WESTERN DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND MAY BRING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO
FAR WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY CLEAR WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AGAIN FOR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT AND SHOULD LIMIT A
HUGE TEMPERATURES PLUNGE TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

COULD BE A WET FINISH TO THE WORK WEEK FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE SHORTWAVE /OF MONSOON ORIGIN/ OVER NEW
MEXICO CONTINUES TO WORK TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

THE AREA THAT RECEIVES THE BIG RAINFALL WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
ASSOCIATED LOW TRACKS. THIS CONTINUES TO BE A STICKING
POINT...WITH THE 26.00Z ECMWF MODEL RUN BEING THE ONLY MODEL
LEFT TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 94 ON FRIDAY. HAVE THEREFORE BEGUN TO TRIM THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WHEN MOST SOLUTIONS KEEP THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HAVE ALSO RESTRICTED THE
HIGHEST PRECIP AMOUNTS TO SOUTHERN MN...WHERE IT STILL LOOKS AS IF
A GOOD 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY FALL. GIVEN PWATS SOAR TO OVER 1.75
INCHES THIS WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CATEGORICAL
POPS ALSO SEEM WARRANTED AS A LLJ OF 35-40KTS NOSES INTO SOUTHERN
MN. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER...SO THE
SEVERE THREAT AND EVEN THE THUNDER POTENTIAL APPEAR LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY BUILD AS A
LARGE SCALE PATTERN TRANSITION ENSUES WITH TROUGING IN THE PAC NW
AND RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SHOULD SEE READINGS AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY...AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BY THE 1ST OF SEPTEMBER...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S APPEAR COMMON...WITH LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES. IT LOOKS TO BE RATHER WASHED OUT BY
THE TIME IT GETS HERE...SO HAVE KEPT POPS LIMITED TO 20-30
PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SW MN...AND RWF COULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUT WILL REMAIN AT VFR. EXPECT ALL
TERMINALS TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...THOUGH WINDS GOING CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN WESTERN WI
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 08-13Z AT EAU AND RNH.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

KMSP...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT...AND ONLY SOME SCATTERED MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY...GUSTING BETWEEN 10-15 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU NIGHT...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WIND S 10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...ADL


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