000
FXUS63 KMPX 200015
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
715 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freeze Warning in effect for Central and Southern MN, and
  western WI from midnight tonight to 7 AM Saturday morning.

- Chance for isolated-scattered snow showers this afternoon. No accumulation
  expected.

- Quiet weather through the weekend, with a couple of systems to
  move across the area at the start and end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

An area of low pressure remains centered over Ontario this afternoon
which is forecast to slowly move eastward tonight into tomorrow,
thus leaving MN and WI on the western periphery of the current
troughing pattern. Strong WNW flow and CAA will continue to
persist through the rest of today before h850 thermal ridging
tries to force warmer air back into the northern plains late
this weekend.

Tonight and tomorrow... The forecast for this evening features
possible isolated to scattered snow showers thanks to
differential heating combined with weak omega. Areas north of
east of the I-94 corridor have the best chances of seeing
p-types favoring snow versus farther south being rain/snow
showery mix and even some graupel. On the contrary, surface dry
air, as seen on forecast soundings, will challenge how much
precipitation reaches the ground versus falling as virga.
Therefore, maintained limited PoPs to 30 percent this evening.
For any snow that does reach the ground, grassy surfaces could
see up to a trace to a tenth of an inch by sunrise. Prevailing
stratus will begin to erode overnight thus removing our layer of
insolation consequentially allowing overnight lows to reach the
mid to upper 20s across much of the area. With vegetation
greening up and temperatures subfreezing, Freeze Warning
headlines are in effect for both central and southern MN and
western WI from midnight to 7 AM Saturday morning.

Sunday... Late this weekend features high pressure, warmer
temepratures and drier conditions. Winds will decrease as the
Ontario low moves farther east. By Sunday, southerly flow will
assist temepratures to reach near 60 degrees although min RH
values in the low 20 percents across Western MN will elevate
fire weather conditions. I am not expecting red flag conditions
given the lack of strong wind gusts in the forecast Sunday
afternoon.

Monday through through next Friday... By Monday of next week, a
developing low will track over Saskatchewan and reach the
northern plains by Monday night. Precip with this event is
growing increasingly likely through Monday as the trough deepens
over Lake Michigan Monday night into Tuesday. Given the track
of this low pressure, much of MN and WI will remain on the warm
side keeping us in the rain regime whereas snow chances remain
pinned to the North Shore where CAA will be strongest. Tuesday`s
highs will be slightly cooler in the 50s before a rebound back
into the 60s for the rest of the period. By the end of next
week, we will have to keep our eye on a Colorado Low that looks
to develop and potentially become our next rain maker. Still
lots of uncertainties to hash out specifics currently.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 701 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Well, there are plenty of returns on radar, but few reports of
precip are resulting from it over central and southern MN
(different story for northern MN) as dry air continues to keep
most of this activity as virga. Given the current lack of precip
obs, kept precip out of the TAFs, though you can`t rule out an
occasional flurry making it to the ground overnight. The cloud
cover will remain in place through the night and start to slowly
clear out from northwest to southeast on Saturday, though that
clearing may never reach EAU this period. As for winds, we`re
taking babysteps on seeing those decrease. They will continue to
be gusty through Saturday, though at least they won`t be
topping 30 kts. Saturday will only be the 3rd day this April
that MSP has failed to see wind gusts over 30 kts.

KMSP...A few flurries can`t be ruled out overnight, but in
general, it looks like we`re done with the white stuff and
hopefully that will be the case for the next 6 months!

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15kts.
MON...Chc MVFR/-SHRA in aftn. Wind SW 10-15G30kts.
TUE...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind N 10-15g30kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Saturday for
     Anoka-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-
     Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le
     Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-
     Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington-
     Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Saturday for
     Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...MPG