Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 242048

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
348 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Conditions this afternoon were more critical in terms of fire
weather as winds were gusting over 30 mph, along with humidity
levels in the teens and 20s. Although SPC fire weather page
highlighted our region, recent rainfall has kept most of the
vegetation moist and only concerns were grass fires that could
spread quicker. These winds will quickly abate by early evening,
alleviating the fire weather concern.

There was a weak disturbance that developed across Nebraska last
night and moved northeast across southern Minnesota this afternoon.
Due to the very dry atmosphere below 5k, all of the rainfall was
light and almost all of the precipitation did not measure. This will
also be the weather story tonight with a chance of showers or
sprinkles. Coverage will be isolated to scattered, but any
measurable rainfall should remain in central and northern Minnesota
where the depth of the moisture is higher.

A cold front was noted across the eastern Dakotas this afternoon.
This front will move across western Minnesota this evening, and into
eastern Minnesota by sunrise. However, a secondary storm system will
develop across the plains overnight, and move along this frontal
boundary on Tuesday. Initially, most areas will remain dry through
mid morning. This will be short-lived as moisture and energy along
this storm system in the plains will move northeast and overspread
southern Minnesota by noon, and across the rest of central
Minnesota, and into west central Wisconsin by the late afternoon.
Highs on Tuesday may be reached Tuesday morning as steadier rainfall
develops in the afternoon and drops temperatures in the rain cooled

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Rain will quickly advance northeastward across the region Tuesday
evening. A band of locally heavy rain will be possible near the
immediate cool side of the SSW-NNE orientated boundary, likely
stretching from Mankato to east central MN and northwest WI where
low level convergence will be maximized. WPC has highlighted this
area in a marginal risk of flooding as well. Could see 1-2 inches
in that corridor with a general 0.25-0.75" elsewhere. The
steadiest rain will lift northeast of the area later Tuesday
night, with showers lingering across central MN and western WI
into Wednesday. Another period of steadier rain is possible across
WI Wednesday into Thursday as another wave lifts up from the
Plains/Rockies trough. The ECMWF actually brings another
deformation band of rain as far west as MN, similar to the GEM
Wednesday in response to a more negatively tilted system. While
this is possible, it appears unlikely at the moment with a more
favored positively tilted trough and a narrow band of heavy
rainfall from MO up through eastern WI.

Following the final wave, it looks dry for the rest of the week,
although fairly cloudy and cool with the cyclonic flow lingering.
Models have come into better agreement for next weekend (at least
for now) in keeping much of the energy with a new western trough
to the south. Still looks like the southern and eastern portions
of the area still have a decent shot at precip, but it doesn`t
look like the widespread soaking rains that had been advertised
previously. However, wouldn`t be surprised to see things change
again with consistency toward the end of the period being quite
poor recently.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

No aviation concerns through the next 6-12 hrs with gusty winds
remain from the south, with the highest gusts in south central
Minnesota until 00z. A few showers will be possible this afternoon
but coverage remains scattered at best. MVFR/IFR cigs are still
expected across west central Minnesota later this evening, and
across most of central to southwest Minnesota by 6-9z tonight.
Confidence is high on cigs lowering overnight, but timing is low.
Once the winds shift to the northwest, lower cigs will start. Most
of the measurable precipitation will hold off until after 18z


Still confident that MVFR cigs will develop late tonight, early
Tuesday morning once the front nears the area. Higher confidence
that IFR cigs/vsbys will hold off until after 18z Tuesday, and
most likely after 21z. Gusty winds this afternoon will decrease
and veer to the northwest by Tuesday morning, then northeast by
the afternoon. There remains some elevated instability late this
afternoon, and again Tuesday afternoon, but not enough to warrant
VCTS at this time.


Tue ngt...MVFR, IFR possible. -RA likely.
Winds NE 10-20 kts.

Wed...MVFR, IFR possible. -RA likely early, mixed with -sn late.
Winds NE 10-20 kts.

Thu...MVFR, IFR possible. Chc -RA/-SN early.
Winds N 5-15 kt bcmg light & variable.




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