Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 031246
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
646 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

EARLY THIS MORNING...LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AS
EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST FORCING HAS WANED AS THE SYSTEM
OCCLUDED...SO SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIGHT AT THIS TIME. STRONG NORTH
WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE EXPECTATION FOR THE MORNING IS SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
THERE WILL BE MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH THE LIGHT SNOW
BANDS WORKING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW
IS NOW OUT OVER THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES NORTHEAST...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN FOR TRAVELERS THIS MORNING IS FOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN...INCLUDING THE I-90 CORRIDOR
WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS MORNING. HENCE...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REPLACE THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR MUCH OF
THAT AREA THROUGH NOON TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BLOWING SNOW
CONCERN.

POPS COME BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT AS
A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH CANADA WITH DECENT PV ANOMALY
AIMED AT NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN. SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS FAST MOVING
WAVE WILL BE MINIMAL HOWEVER AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A CLIPPER LOW
DRIVING ESEWD FROM W-CENTRAL CANADA ACRS THE MN INTERNATIONAL
BORDER BY DAYBREAK THU MRNG. THE LOW WILL COME IN A WEAKENED
FASHION FROM BEING MORE WELL-DEVELOPED IN CANADA. ALTHOUGH IT
WILL BE USHERED ALONG BY AN UPR LVL TROF...OVERALL FORCING LOOKS
FAIRLY WEAK AMONG THE GFS/EC/GEM SUCH IN ADDITION TO A PROGRESSIVE
FORWARD SPEED THAT ONLY MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS /AN INCH OR
LESS CWFA-WIDE/ LOOK POSSIBLE FROM THIS SYSTEM DURG THE DAY THU.
CONTINUED NW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES TO MOVE THRU THE AREA
DURG THE DAY FRI. AGAIN...A FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE UPR LVL TROF WILL
HELP MOVE THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM ALONG...BUT IT WILL AGAIN CONTAIN
FAIRLY WEAK UPR LVL SUPPORT AND WITH ITS STEADY FORWARD SPEED WILL
ALSO PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. AS FOR
SATURDAY...QUITE THE DISCERNIBLE UPR LVL RIDGE COMING ONSHORE THE
WRN NOAM COAST LATE THU WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CONUS SAT. THE
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRES MOVING ATOP THE REGION WILL KEEP THE AREA
DRY AND COMMENCE WARM AIR ADV FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON THU-FRI IN
THE 20S TO NEAR 30S WILL CLIMB TO THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S ON SAT.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT OFF TO
THE E ON SUN...IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT CDFNT DUE TO PUSH THRU THE
REGION LATE DAY SUN. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...INCRD H5 HEIGHTS
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE COMBINED WITH STRONG SLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE CDFNT WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW-MID 30S
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE CDFNT WILL RESULT IN NOT ONLY ADDITIONAL
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS /AND POTENTIALLY A RAIN-SNOW MIX WITH
TEMPS ABV FREEZING/ BUT ALSO STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTING
SUN NIGHT AND LASTING INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES
WILL PREVAIL FOR MON-TUE BUT STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A
PATHWAY FOR AN ARCTIC SURGE OF AIR TO MOVE INTO THE N-CENTRAL
CONUS. HIGHS WILL DROP TO THE TEENS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE LOWS
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

STILL DEALING WITH A LAST GASP OF -SN FROM THE DEPARTING
SIGNIFICANT STORM...WITH A SWATH ORIENTED NE-SW OVER FAR WRN WI
THRU THE TWIN CITIES METRO TO NEAR KMKT. SITES AFFECTED BY THIS
BAND...KMSP AND POINTS EWD...CAN EXPECT MVFR-IFR FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER 03/12Z BEFORE CONDS START TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE MID-LATE AFTN
THRU TNGT. MEANWHILE...SITES NW OF KMSP ARE ALREADY IN VFR AND ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY AS SUCH THRU TNGT. CONDS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE
OVERNIGHT THRU DAYBREAK THU AS A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRES CENTER
ARRIVES FROM W-CENTRAL CANADA. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH IFR CONDS
LIKELY DUE TO ADDITIONAL -SN ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMS EXPECTED.

KMSP...KMSP CAN EXPECT UP TO 2 HRS OF IFR VSBY -SN WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SWATH CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE TC METRO. THE SNOW
BAND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE E LATER THIS MRNG THEN STEADY
IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. CONDS TO REMAIN VFR
OVERNIGHT WITH RISING THEN FALLING CEILINGS. BEST CHCS FOR
ADDITIONAL -SN LOOK TO OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK TMRW...BUT CHCS ARE
ADMITTEDLY LOW SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS VIA A PROB30 GROUP AT
THE TAIL END OF THE 03/12Z TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND SW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. WIND SW/S 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR-IFR/-SN. WIND SW 5-10 KTS...BECOMING W.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ073>075-
     082>085-091>093.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...JPC


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