Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 100007 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
707 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

NOTE...AN UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY CAN BE
FOUND BELOW.

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. 09.12Z MODELS
DID NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH...BUT DID FEATURE SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING
FOR TONIGHT. GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS WILL START MOVING INTO
THE NORTHWEST /KAXN AREA/ AROUND 00Z...AND MARCHING ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE CONTINUED TO
FEATURE THE HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS ALONG/NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94
CORRIDOR...WHERE SATURATION IS RICHER. REGARDLESS...MOST AREAS
WILL ONLY SEE AROUND/UNDER FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE CLEARED THE
EASTERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING GUSTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER...BUT ACTUALLY STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S /WI AND NC MN/ TO AROUND 60 /SW MN/.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY TAKES A TUMBLE AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON...SO FIRE
WX WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST AND SOUTH /SEE
FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW/.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR MUCH COOLER CONDS NEXT WEEK REMAINS HIGH AS THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN SHIFTS TO A MORE NW DIRECTION...LEADING TO COOLER
CANADIAN AIR MASS INTRUSIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPS...EVEN
SOME LIGHT SNOW...MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REMAINS
CONDUCIVE FOR BOTH RAIN/SNOW DEPENDING UPON THE SFC TEMPS.

A QUICK MOVING SHRTWV WILL BRUSH THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND INTO FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL
PROVIDE FOR SOME LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
QPF. ALTHOUGH THE EC HAS A BROAD AREA OF QPF FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...BOTH THE GEM/GFS HAS A SMALL AREA OF
CONCENTRATED QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THEREFORE...THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO KEEP HIGH CHC POPS ALONG
THE NORTHERN PART OF MPX CWA.

A MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND INTO SATURDAY AFTN. THERE REMAINS
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH CHC OR LIKELY POPS FOR MOST AREAS DURING
THE 06Z TO 18Z SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THE ONLY DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IS THE ASSOCIATED JET AND HOW BOTH THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN
STREAMS COMBINE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
ANOTHER FACTOR IN FRIDAY NIGHTS/SATURDAY SYSTEM IS PWATS INCREASE TO
ARND 0.80 TO 1.00" WHICH IS WELL ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF AMTS/HIGHER MODEL POPS ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW THESE
PARAMETERS CHG AND WHETHER THERE IS A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF LIFT AND
ASSOCIATED QPF AMTS.

AS DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY...NEXT WEEK REMAINS BLW NORMAL BUT THERE IS
NO BIG SIGNAL OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM. THE SPLIT FLOW
REGIME WILL PLAY HAVOC ON SFC BOUNDARY LOCATIONS AND WHETHER ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO GENERATE QPF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

YET ANOTHER DAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED THURSDAY FROM
WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY...POST-FRONTAL DRIER AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 20S WILL YIELD RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING TO 25
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STOUT AS
WELL...SUSTAINED AT SPEEDS OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

SNOWMELT CONTINUES TO CAUSE RISING RIVER LEVELS OVER MOST
OF THE MPX AREA...PARTICULARLY NORTH AND EAST. EVEN WITH MINOR QPF
OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...ALL RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FS WITH
ONLY A COUPLE OVER ACTION STAGE. HOWEVER...IF ABOUT AN INCH OF QPF
ARRIVES AS FCST OVER THE CHIPPEWA WI BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND...WE
COULD SEE THE CHIPPEWA AT DURAND REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATE MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. THE HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE THAT THREAT.
OTHERWISE...ICE JAMS ARE A CONCERN AS THE BREAKUP GETS GOING NORTH
AND EAST OF MSP...WITH POTENTIAL UNFORECAST RAPID RISES POSSIBLE
WHEN THEY FORM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ALONG/BEHIND A COLD FRONT. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND/OR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND
INCLUDED SUCH POTENTIAL IN THE AXN TAF. THE OTHER LOCATIONS MAY BE
STABLE ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THIS THREAT. WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND BEGIN TO GUST BETWEEN 25-30 KT AGAIN AFTER
14-16Z.

KMSP...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER NEAR 210 FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE THE COLD FROPA AROUND 04Z. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE IN AT
THAT TIME AND PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AFTERWARD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 15Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. CHC SHRA. WINDS SW 5 KTS.
SAT...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS BCMG N
5-10 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS N 10-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ054>056-
     064-065-073>075-082-083-091-092.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
FIRE WEATHER...LS
HYDROLOGY...CCS
AVIATION...BORGHOFF







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