Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 161053
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
553 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

A FEW WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.  FOG THREAT FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING...MANLY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  THEN TIMING
OF INCOMING FRONT AND HOW WARM IT WILL GET THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY ANY CHANCE OF -SHRA OVER THE NORTHERN CWA LATE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED THIS MORNING...TO THE EAST WITH A CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WIND UNDER THE RIDGE. SOME LOWER STRATUS DEVELOPED A
BIT FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST
IN WEAK EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY STOP...PERHAPS NEAR OUR FAR EASTERN CWA.
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE NEAR ZERO IN THIS REGION AS WELL.
EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING.
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN HOW EXTENSIVE IT WILL BE.  WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TREND.

A BAND OF CIRRUS IS WORKING EAST AHEAD OF THE DAKOTAS COLD FRONT.
IT REMAINS FAIRLY NARROW AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK EAST THROUGH
EARLY MORNING.  THEN MODELS SUGGEST MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE FRONT WORKS EAST.  LITTLE MOISTURE INDICATED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SO WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE GOOD MIXING WITH THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM THROUGH THE LOWER 70S INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MN...AROUND 70 OR SO INTO EAST CENTRAL MN.  TIMING OF FRONT
BRINGS IT INTO THE METRO AREA AROUND 23Z.  THIS SHOULD PROMOTE BEST
MIX POTENTIAL INTO THE AREA.  WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO FAR WEST
CENTRAL MN WITH FROPA...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS A BIT BAGGY
WITH BETTER PRESSURE RISES OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT AS CAA DEVELOPS AND PRESSURE
RISES FOLLOW THE FRONT.  CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWEST CWA THROUGH 06Z AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY.  THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE INTO A POTION OF
THE NORTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT.  FORCING IS DRIVEN EAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT BUT THE ECMWF CAME IN A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH.  GUIDANCE ALSO DROPPED SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTH AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL START OFF ON A COOLER NOTE IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
RATHER QUICKLY...AS WESTERN RIDGING BUILDS TOWARD THE CENTRAL
CONUS BY SUNDAY...AND DOMINATES THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...FRIDAY WILL BRING AN ABRUPT HALT TO THE
MILD WEATHER OF LATE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM A FEW DEGREES
FROM MORNING LOWS...AND A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND WILL MAKE A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY FEEL LIKE TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S. CYCLONIC FLOW
SURROUNDING THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL FOSTER EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR.

CLOUDS SHOULD HANG IN ON FRIDAY NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
THE FREEZING MARK. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FOR
SATURDAY...BUT DECREASING WINDS AND SCATTERING CLOUDS SHOULD BE
SEEN AS AN OVERALL IMPROVEMENT FROM FRIDAY/S WEATHER.

BY SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW ENSUES AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS...AND RANGE FROM NEAR 55 IN WEST CENTRAL WI TO AROUND 65 OVER
WEST CENTRAL MN. LITTLE CHANGE IS THEN FORESEEN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AS MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO FACILITATE DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE A
BROAD TROUGH WILL BARGE EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL CONUS...AND BRING
A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF TEMPORAL
UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT WOULD CURRENTLY LOOK TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY-
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

INITIAL CONCERN IS FOG/STRATUS AT KEAU FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS. FEW BLIPS ON THE ASOS OF LOWER VSBYS AROUND. WILL HAVE TO
HOLD ONTO FOG THREAT THROUGH 14Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR
THEREAFTER UNTIL LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING. COLD FRONT TO SWEEP
INTO WESTERN MN THIS MORNING AND INTO WESTERN WI AFTER 00Z FRI.
WILL BRING MVFR CIGS INTO KAXN AFTER 04Z AND TOWARD KMSP THROUGH
09Z. LATER INTO WESTERN WI. SOME THREAT OF -SHRA...BUT WILL BE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREAS THROUGH 12Z. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH COULD BE GUSTY. THEN BECOMING W-NW AND GUSTY
WITH FROPA.

KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. FROPA STILL AROUND 23Z-
00Z AT THE FIELD. WILL MENTION MVFR CIGS MOVING IN AFTER 09Z AND
AROUND 2K FEET BY 12Z FRI. CIG COULD DROP TO 1700 FEET DURING THE
MORNING AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THAT AT
THE MOMENT. SURFACE WINDS SE-S AND AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN
BECOMING SW-W AND EVENTUALLY NW WITH FROPA INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI AFTERNOON...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY. WINDS NW 15G25 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE






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