Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 160506
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1106 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

STEADY LIGHT SNOW HAS ENGULFED SOUTHERN MN IN LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND SETTING UP ALONG THE IOWA BORDER AS
EXPECTED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WE`RE EXPECTING MOST
OF THE SNOW IN SOUTHERN MN TO WEAKEN AS FORCING WANES...AND THE
F-GEN MAX SLIDES SOUTH INTO IOWA...AS FRONTOLYSIS TAKES OVER ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHERN MN.  THIS TREND IS QUITE APPARENT ON
RADAR AND HAS BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE HRRR FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS. SO...EXPECT A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING.
ANOTHER DECENT SNOW BAND WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.  IT WILL CROSS
THE MN/SD BORDER AROUND 6-7 PM AND CONTINUE EASTWARD...PRODUCING
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL WI. FOR THE TWIN CITIES...THIS BAND WILL
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 0.5"-1" MAINLY FROM 9PM THROUGH 1AM.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE BACK EDGE OF THIS BAND TO CROSS THE MN/WI
LINE AT ABOUT 3AM...WITH LIGHT SNOW LINGERING UNTIL 5-6AM NEAR EAU
CLAIRE.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LAST NIGHT WERE A GOOD FIVE DEGREES COLDER
THAN EXPECTED OVER THE SOLID SNOW PACK. IN COLLABORATION WITH OTHER
OFFICES...WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE WEST THAN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...BUT THE EASTERN CWA WILL RETAIN SOMEWHAT WARMER
TEMPERATURES UNDER CONSISTENT CLOUD COVER /AND LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIP OVERNIGHT/. BY TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS WILL HAVE TURNED
WESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG CAA APPARENT AT
925H ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE WILL MAKE FOR A COLD SUNDAY. 925H
TEMPS AROUND -12C ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WILL ONLY ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPS TO MIX INTO THE UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

THE WEEK AHEAD REMAINS EXTREMELY COLD FOR MID NOVEMBER WITH THREE
SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR FORECAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE FIRST IS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...THE SECOND TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
WITH THE THIRD ON THURSDAY. LOWS/HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE TREND
TODAY WAS TO CONTINUE LOWERING TEMPERATURES OVER THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE DUE TO A MORE EXPANSIVE SNOW PACK. THE ARCTIC SURGE THAT
OCCURS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY OFFERS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHERE A FLUFFY INCH OR TWO COULD OCCUR. THE OTHER TWO
ARCTIC SURGES HAVE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING TO THE NORTHEAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN LESS CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR US.

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL IN
THE MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE CONCERN
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON MONDAY HAS WANED A BIT TODAY
AS ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE DECREASED THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MN FORECAST AREA FROM 10 MB TO 8 MB IN
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS HAS LOWERED WIND SPEED FORECASTS A LITTLE
ON MONDAY FROM KRWF TO KFRM. IN ADDITION...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN HIGHEST IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA (OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA) WHERE 3 TO 5
INCHES HAVE BEEN COMMON. SNOWFALL IN OUR AREA OF WEST CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAS BEEN MORE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE.

BUFKIT PROFILES FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THAT THE BEST LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HIGHEST TOP OF THE CHANNEL MOMENTUM TRANSFER
DON/T OCCUR UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM WEST
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ALTHOUGH AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT...THERE
ARE STILL SOME INDICATIONS THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS COULD REACH
25 MPH FROM KRWF TO KFRM MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS HITTING 40
MPH. THIS COULD RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS IN THESE AREAS. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THE THREAT FOR SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE SATURATED LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAINING IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.

AT THIS POINT...DIDN/T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A BLIZZARD
WATCH FOR MONDAY FROM YELLOW MEDICINE AND RENVILLE COUNTIES ON
SOUTHEAST TO MARTIN AND FARIBAULT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENING SOME AND THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS TODAY TO OUR WEST. THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME LATER TONIGHT TO ISSUE A WATCH IF WIND
CONDITIONS CHANGE WITH THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

LIGHT SNOW IS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED AND WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MN/WI TONIGHT AND SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST
T0 EAST BETWEEN 05Z-08Z IN MN...AND 08Z-12Z IN WI. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL THE SNOW
MOVES OUT.

KMSP...

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE WELL TO THE EAST
BEFORE THE MORNING COMMUTE BEGINS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...SLIGHT CHC -SN WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS. WINDS NW 15-20 G 25 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS G 20 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     MNZ073>076-082>085-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...CLF







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