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000
FXUS63 KMPX 190803
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
303 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for isolated-scattered snow showers this afternoon. No
  accumulation expected.

- Temperatures drop to near/below freezing again tonight.

- Quiet weather through the weekend, with the next rain bearing
  system arriving early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin has started to dance along
the metaphorical line of freezing temps as the mid-level clouds
continue to scatter out across the area. Any susceptible vegetation
will be at risk again tonight with temperatures expected to be 1-3
degrees cooler than what we see this morning.

In collaboration with neighboring offices, a widespread mention of
isolated-scattered snow showers has been introduced for this
afternoon. Model soundings show a cloud layer developing within the
DGZ where near dry adiabatic lapse rates will be present. There will
also be a deep enough cold layer to keep any falling precip
primarily as snow. This combination of forcing and mid-level
moisture could be enough to result in the light snow showers. The
HRRR has been one of the more aggressive models for this trend. The
main limiting factor will be the pocket of dry air below the cloudy
layer that any precipitation will need to overcome. Thus, the other
possible outcome would be widespread virga, especially the further
south you travel. Regardless of whether you see more snow or virga,
no significant accumulation is expected.

Surface high pressure will keep things relatively quiet through
Monday morning, with below average temperatures, breezy conditions,
and mostly clear skies expected.

Our next upper-level disturbance will shoot southeast from Canada
Monday night into Tuesday. The system will look to occlude and spin
across the Upper Midwest, resulting in a prolonged period of
cloudy/rainy conditions. The heaviest rain will most likely fall
during the initial passage of the system, but QPF looks generally
light overall with only a few tenths expected at most. There is
potential for thunder to mix in, especially with the initial
passage, however the ingredients for anything convective are
relatively underwhelming at the moment.

Following this system, highs will trend into the 60s as ridging
builds in from the west. The CFSv2 accumulated supercell composite
parameter also hints a more active period may be setting up for the
central CONUS towards the end of April.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

The stratocu around 5-7k feet should continue to thin out overnight,
resulting in mostly clear skies for all terminals until we see
redevelopment tomorrow morning. Most sites will return to BKN/OVC
VFR for much of tomorrow, with cigs bottoming out around 5k feet.
Strong west winds also make a return tomorrow, with gusts up to 35
kts expected. We are still keeping an eye on the potential for snow
showers tomorrow, however snow reports continue to be limited
upstream this evening, so have opted to keep mention out for
now.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15kts.
MON...Chc MVFR/-SHRA in aftn. Wind S 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-Blue
     Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-
     Goodhue-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-
     McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-
     Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow
     Medicine.
WI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Chippewa-Dunn-
     Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BED