Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 291738
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1238 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW LESS MORNING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT FROM 75 TO
80 DEGREES...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH DOMINATING FOR
ANOTHER DAY. TODAY/S DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...SPONSORED BY FAINT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED
IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER WEST CENTRAL WI TODAY...POSSIBLY SNEAKING AS FAR WEST
AS THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DECREASING BELOW 5
MPH...WITH ANOTHER NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM 50 TO 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THERE ARE ONLY SO MANY DIFFERENT WAYS TO DESCRIBE THIS WEEKS
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND IT APPEARS WE ARE
APPROACHING THAT LIMIT. NORTHWEST FLOW...ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGING
AND JAMES BAY LOW CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES...WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE THE THURSDAY NIGHT
PERIOD WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE...AND INDEED THE MODEL GENERATED QPF
REPLICATES THIS. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL QUICKLY
STABILIZE OVERNIGHT...AND WITH NO LOW LEVEL JET TO WORK WITH
FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE THAT THE PALTRY UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITHIN
THE WEAK FLOW REGIME WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE GFS 29.00 BRINGS A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE OF
POPS...BUT THE ECMWF SHEARS OUT THIS WAVE IN THE CONFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. DID NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT 30 PERCENT POPS SEEM A BIT OVERDONE...AND MAY NEED
TO SCALE THEM BACK AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDS XPCTD AT ALL TAF SITES BUT THERE IS STILL A
DECENT CHC AT SEEING SHOWERS AT THE WI SITES...PARTICULARLY
KEAU...LATER THIS AFTN. WEAK DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE WRN FRINGES
OF THE LONGWAVE ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL SWING THRU WI LATER THIS AFTN
INTO THE EVE HRS. ENOUGH LIFT FROM A FEW OF THESE DISTURBANCES MAY
PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCTD SHWRS OVER NWRN WI THAT WILL DRIFT SSE AND
MAY MOVE ACRS THE WI TAF SITES. NOT LOOKING FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS BUT IT DOES LOOK ENOUGH TO DROP VSBY TO MINIMAL VFR
CONDS AND PRODUCE MIDLVL CIGS. THE THREAT FOR ANY SHWRS IS
CONFINED TO LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVE...THUS RESULTING IN VFR CONDS
OVERNIGHT THRU MIDDAY TMRW. WINDS REMAIN PRIMARILY NW...INCRG TO
ARND 10 KT THIS AFTN BEFORE SETTLING DOWN TO LESS THAN 5 KT
OVERNIGHT.

KMSP...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR THROUGHOUT THIS SET WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WINDS NW 5 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS N 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPC
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...JPC






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