Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 302154
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
Issued by National Weather Service Duluth MN
354 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 353 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Stacked upper low pressure system over Minnesota and Wisconsin
today, with a broad area of clouds and lingering light
precipitation.  This is one of those days with fairly high POPs, but
low QPF values, where everyone sees precipitation going on, but the
reported rainfall amounts are just a few hundredths of a inch. This
system is very slowly moving off to the east, and by Thursday
morning should be just crossing the Ontario/Quebec border.  This is
going to cause this persistent cloud cover and light precipitation
to continue much of tonight before diminishing to just clouds during
the day on Thursday.  Temperatures will stay on the clammy and
chilly side with small diurnal ranges of only about 5 degrees.  Lows
tonight will be in the low 30s, only rising into the mid 30s
tomorrow.  Another cloudy mild night to continue for Tomorrow night,
but cold air advection in the northwest flow should allow min temps
to get into the 20s.  We might get some peeks of sunshine on Friday
and Saturday as a weak surface ridge builds across the area, though
the northwest cyclonic flow continues aloft and it may only be
brief.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Saturday night and Sunday a shortwave moves through the area along
with a trough of low pressure to bring another brief period of light
snow, though confidence is not very high in timing or placement.
Either way, snowfall amounts should be light as the forcing just is
not very strong and available moisture is somewhat weak.

Monday begins a period of high uncertainty as some fairly
significant differences develop in the long range models.  They
agree that a large upper trough moves onto the West Coast, but there
are very large differences in how this feature and the shortwaves
within it evolve through Tuesday and Wednesday.  A leading shortwave
should bring precipitation to mainly the western half of the area
beginning on Monday, but the ECMWF is much stronger and slower with
this feature and delays the precipitation into Tuesday, almost
missing us to the west, while the faster GFS brings precipitation in
as early as Sunday night and keeps precipitation going into Tuesday.
Behind this initial wave the large upper trough slowly oozes east to
over the Midwest, with shortwaves within that wave continuing to
vary in track, timing and speed with little agreement between the
models in more than the large scale generic pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Deep moisture and little mixing today will lead to IFR ceilings
with occasional light precipitation in the form or rain/snow.
Visibilities could drop to 1-2SM in heavier snowfall, but this is
unlikely for an extended period of time. Winds will be light and
variable over east central/west central Wisconsin until noon as
the surface low moves overhead. By the afternoon, winds will
become more west/northwest and increase. Western Minnesota will
continue to see west/northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph with the
stronger winds in the southwest part of the state.

KMSP...

Little change in the current ceilings with IFR, or low end MVFR
ceilings through the taf period. Mixing in the boundary layer
will be limited, so ceilings should remain below 1.7k. Some light
precipitation is likely today, but any snow will be minor and not
accumulate. Winds will slowly become west-northwest during the
morning and increase slightly this afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Thu...MVFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Fri...MVFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind W at 10 kts.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...JLT



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