Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
000
FXUS63 KMPX 152054 AAA
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
354 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Critical fire weather conditions are possible Saturday and
Sunday across western Minnesota.
- Dry weather persists over the next week.
- Return to cooler, seasonable temperatures this weekend into
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Current satellite highlights a deteriorating layer of stratocumulus
clouds situated over central Minnesota this afternoon. Temperatures
have trended higher over eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin
since they saw a longer period of clear skies. Winds will gradually
shift NW and increase in strength overnight behind the passage of a
surface low to the northeast. This system will bring a chance for
light rain/snow showers to parts of northern Minnesota and
northwestern Wisconsin. Lack of available moisture will be a
limiting factor for an already slim chance of precipitation,
especially the closer to the Twin Cities metro you get.
The main impacts for the southern half of Minnesota and western
Wisconsin will be 1) a drop to cooler, more seasonable temperatures
and 2) widespread winds around 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30-35 mph
Saturday and Sunday. Saturday will have the best shot for higher
wind speeds/gusts as the cold front moves through the area.
An upper level ridge will settle in across the central CONUS early
next week, allowing our temperatures to gradually rebound back into
the upper 40s and low 50s. The dry trend continues, with our next
semblance of significant precipitation coming well into la la land
of forecast models. For what it is worth, the CPC has placed us
within the slight risk of heavy snow during the period of March 22-
26th in response to the signal. Something to keep an eye on...
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
A narrow swath of stratocumulus clouds around 2500-4000 ft is
making its way eastward across central Minnesota this afternoon.
This should scatter out of the area by this evening at the very
latest. High clouds will move back in this evening after a few
hours of clear skies. Strong, and widespread, W to NW winds are
still on track for development tonight behind the passage of a
cold front from the northwest. Wind speeds will increase to
15-20 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts.
KMSP...Scattered cumulus is making its way into the Twin Cities
metro, and could stick around until 23z depending on how much
mixing is able to erode the cloud deck away. VFR conditions are
expected throughout with the main impact being the increase in
W/NW winds overnight into tomorrow.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN PM...VFR. Wind NW 15-20G25-35kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 15G25kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
After coordination with MIFC, and WFOs FSD and ABR, decided to
post a Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon across western
Minnesota. Despite traditionally marginal RH values around 30
percent, strong winds gusting to 35-40 mph and very dry fuels
will facilitate rapid fire spread should they develop. A similar
situation could develop Sunday despite colder temperatures, but
RH may be a bit drier and winds may be a bit lighter.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for Brown-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-
Pope-Redwood-Renville-Stevens-Swift-Watonwan-Yellow
Medicine.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BED
FIRE WEATHER...Borghoff