Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 132328
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
528 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

.UPDATE...For 00z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Forecast concern in the near term remains timing of stratus
development/advection over the region tonight and threat of
freezing drizzle into parts of west central WI.

Stratus over Iowa still looks like it should develop/advect north
over the cwa this evening. Primarily 00z-03z period. Most short
term HIRES models should the possibility of drizzle/fog with this
as well. BUFKIT cross sections showing cloud deck should be thick
enough to generate mist/drizzle, Continued the lower end chance
PoPs for this over the eastern half of the area into Tuesday.
Surface temperatures may be around freezing/slightly below over a
portion of west central WI at least for part of the night.
Temepratures may steady off or slowly rise after the thicker
stratus arrives.

Ahead of the front, we should maintain the lower clouds through
most of the day Tuesday as the incoming upper trough approaches.
It still looks like overall redevelopment of rain should occur
from extreme east central MN and west central WI into late
Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures are still expected to remain mild
with some lower 50s possible again across the southwest before
fropa.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Longer term should trend much colder again by next weekend.

The initial front exits the east by Wednesday with brief cooling.
Blustery northwest winds follow this front and clouds holding on
to mainly the northern and eastern cwa. Then the next pacific
trough move east over the cwa later Thursday night through Friday
night, and may linger into the far east into Saturday. We continue
with the categorical PoPs to the east with east central MN on the
edge of this precipitation field.

The deterministic models diverge on overall upper air pattern
later in the period with the GFS more amplified with the eastern
conus trough over the weekend. Still looks like we should draw
down below normal temperatures again along with a rain changing to
wet snow scenario later Friday night and over the east into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 529 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Timing of the developing/advecting stratus remains the primary
concern this TAF period. MVFR cigs look to be tracking with
previous expectations, with all sites either starting off with
MVFR cigs, or degrading to them within the first few hours of the
TAF period. Some models have have slowed a bit regarding further
reduction to IFR, which based on current trends does look
possible. Delayed IFR arrival by a couple hours a northern/eastern
sites. Expect lowering vsbys as well...especially over central mn
into western wi overnight with -dz. Could see a period of -fzdz
over parts of WI where surface temps are slightly colder. KEAU
looks to be on the edge of that potential with drier surface
dewpoints to start. Little improvement is expected on Tuesday,
with IFR expected to prevail through most (if not all) of the
day.

KMSP...
High confidence in MVFR near the start of the period, but
confidence lowers with respect to the reduction to IFR tonight.
Trended slightly slower with the TAF (3 hours) given some models
have slowed it down a bit, but will be monitoring trends closely
with IFR already in the southern part of MN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Wed...Chc MVFR. Wind NW 15G20 kts.
Thu...VFR with MVFR/-RASN possible late. Wind SE 10 kts.
Fri...MVFR with Chance -RA. Wind W 7-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...LS



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