Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 111811
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1211 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

.Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 405 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

Very light precipitation is possible before 9 am in portions of
south central, and southeast Minnesota, as well as west central
Wisconsin. However, most of the deeper moisture has left the region,
which leads to any chances of measurable precipitation very low.
Otherwise, clouds will clear slowly from west to east over south
central and east central Minnesota late this morning, and into the
afternoon. Central and west central Minnesota will have more
sunshine today with temperatures rising into the 30s and 40s. A cold
front will move southeast across the state later today. Behind this
front, cooler air will filter into the region, but not as cold as it
has been. Look for temperatures slightly below normal on Sunday, but
much warmer than it has been.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 405 AM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

High pressure will drift overhead Sunday and Sunday night. Return
flow will develop late Sunday night and prevent temperatures from
falling into the teens on a widespread basis.

Southerly flow will be in place through Tuesday. Temperatures
Monday will finally return to normal, but will exceed normal
values by 10-15 degrees Tuesday. Thermal ridging snaking up ahead
of another approaching cold front may send highs into the
mid/upper 50s if those +8 to +10C 925 mb temps pan out during the
afternoon. The thought is this probably won`t happen with low
level clouds developing in a strong WAA regime, but we should get
into the lower to middle 50s across most of MN south of I-94. NAM
is exhibiting its typical overly moist and cold boundary layer
bias where it thinks snow cover will remain. A front will pass
through Tuesday evening as deeper moisture finally arrives to
break out some rain across eastern MN and western WI.

A brief shot at colder air for midweek, before models still hint
at a stronger system traversing the nation`s mid section late next
week. Model consistency remains quite poor.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Nov 11 2017

VFR conditions today. A cold front will drop in from the northwest
and bring northwest winds later today. MVFR clouds are expected to
filter in behind the front late tonight and last through Sunday
morning, but should scatter out and become VFR Sunday afternoon.

KMSP...
VFR conditions with southwest winds this afternoon becoming
northwest as a cold front moves through later tonight. Should see
MVFR clouds develop after midnight and bases are expected to be
below 1700 ft through Sunday morning before scattering out during
the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Wind S 10 kts.
Tue...VFR, MVFR late with -dz. Wind S 5-10 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind NW 10G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB



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