Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 012012
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
312 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING FROM NEAR LADYSMITH ON SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH EAU
CLAIRE TO RED WING AND ZUMBROTA. BKN-OVC CU HAS FORMED IN THESE
AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS POINT TO
INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 925-850MB THAT WILL AID IN SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. VARIOUS CAMS HAVE REMAINED SOLIDIFIED ON THE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY FORECAST BETWEEN
MENOMONIE AND LADYSMITH. THE SHOWERS WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR ACROSS CENTRAL MN WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI. LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND ADJOINING AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL WI ALONG HIGHWAY 8
WITH PATCHY FROST INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. LOWS ELSEWHERE WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH THE AREA OF
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT
AT SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MIDDLE 60S FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL ON THE BACK SIDE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE
FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP MIXING.
TUESDAY WILL BE WINDY. BUT EVEN WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WE GET
WARM ADVECTION FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON BEFORE COOLER AIR QUICKLY ARRIVES DURING THE
EVENING. THAT NARROW RIBBON OF WARM AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO JUMP INTO THE LOWER 70S BY THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE INCLUDED A
CHANCE FOR RAIN IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG OR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT /ESPECIALLY IN WI WHERE HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN THE 50S UNDER A STRATO-CU DECK/...BUT BUILDING HEIGHTS
AND WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED THU-FRI AND THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE RETURN TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS ABOUT THE WARMER TEMPS LATE IN THE WEEK...IT
ALSO MEANS INCREASED CHANCES FOP SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE 21Z-03Z TIME
FRAME FROM WEST CENTRAL WI THROUGH SOUTHEAST MN. THE ONLY TAF
SITE AT RISK WOULD BE KEAU. VFR CONDITIONS WOULD PREVAIL WITH
CEILINGS IN THE 040-050 RANGE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF SOME SCT-BKN CU THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON 12-15G20KTS WILL
DIMINISH TO 8-10 KNOTS IN THE 21Z- 24Z PERIOD THEN BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

KMSP...SCT CU THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 045. IT COULD BECOME BKN045
FOR A SHORT TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A FEW SHOWERS OCCUR WELL
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AIRFIELD. WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THOSE DESCRIBED ABOVE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. ISOLATED AFTN/EVE SHRA POSSIBLE. WIND NW AT 15G25KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NNW AT 10-15KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND N 6-8KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH



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