512
FNUS73 KMPX 031111
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Lea Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
611 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...For the Lea Rx Burn, temperatures will warm quickly
from the mid-50s at ignition time to the mid to upper 60s by
early afternoon. RH values will likely remain around 50% or higher
during the afternoon, but could potentially approach 40% if
temperatures overachieve by a few degrees. Cloud cover increases
during the afternoon with a slight chance of rain showers late
this afternoon & evening. Winds will be generally SW to WSW
around 10 mph through mid afternoon. A wind shift is expected
during the late afternoon or evening, which will result in winds
becoming more northerly with speeds still around 10 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming mostly
                    cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of rain
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Temperature.........51 at ignition...Max 61.
RH..................61 percent at ignition...Min 42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 13 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 9 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /32900 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /86400 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5200 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......CLR MCR MCR PC  MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....                            SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............51  53  56  58  60  61  61  58  54  51  50  49
RH..............61  56  49  48  45  44  42  49  59  68  74  77
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   SW  W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..13  13  13  12  12  12  10  9   12  9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.20  20  20  17  17  17  16  14  17  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 2.3 2.8 3.4 4.0 4.4 5.2 3.2 2.0 1.3 1.3 1.2
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  W
Transp wind spd.20  18  17  16  17  17  18  15  15  14  12  9
Haines index....6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers.
Temperature.........Min 42.
RH..................Max 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (26900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3800 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning, then slight
                    chance of rain showers early in the morning.
Temperature.........Max 60.
RH..................Min 46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (88300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 16 mph increasing to 17 to 18
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dye
Requested by...Matt Graeve
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413064.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/03/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mgraeve@tnc.org