Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FNUS73 KMPX 231545
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Carver Rapids...USFWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1045 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Good morning. The biggest challenge today is the light and
variable wind speed.  There is a boundary right across your
area with a wind shift on either side. Right now it appears
you will have westerly winds but the speeds will be light
and could see a shift of around 60 degrees to the north or
south today.

Flying cloud airport (to your north) and Lakeville
airport (to your east) both reporting northeast winds while
Glencoe (to your west) is reporting and easterly wind. Its
possible that the river valley is causing your wind to differ
from those neighboring sites.

In summary, skies will be mostly sunny but confidence
is low in the wind direction today, but speeds will be light.
If you have any questions call us at 952-361-6671.
.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Temperature.........55 at ignition...Max 72.
RH..................59 percent at ignition...Min 30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southwest at 3 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming north around 5 mph late in
                    the morning, then shifting to the south 5 to 6
                    mph late in the morning becoming 5 to 7 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 400-2200 ft
                    AGL increasing to 7100-8300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 14 mph shifting to the southwest 15
                    to 18 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing winds........West 5 to 14 mph shifting to the southwest 15
                    to 18 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /7300 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /34200 knot-ft/ increasing to excellent (108300
                    knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Temp............55  56  59  61  64  66  69  70  71  71
RH..............59  59  54  49  45  42  36  33  31  30
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  NE  NE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..3   5   5   6   5   5   5   6   6   7
20 FT wind gust.5                               10  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 2.2 3.9 5.6 7.4 7.7 8.0 8.3 7.7 7.1
Transp wind dir.NW  N   NW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
Transp wind spd.6   5   7   10  14  15  16  16  17  18
Mixing wind dir.NW  N   NW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
Mixing wind spd.6   5   7   10  14  15  16  16  17  18
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/10007   9   34  60  85  97  108 120 114 108

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy.
Temperature.........Min 50.
RH..................Max 68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL decreasing to 300-900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 21 mph.
Mixing winds........South 12 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (69300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor to
                    good (2500-36100 knot-ft) early in the evening.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Temp............67     59     53     50     51     51
RH..............34     47     61     68     63     63
20 ft wind......SE 7   SE 6   SE 6   S 6    S 8    S 9
20 ft wind gust.15     10     10     10     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....6500   2300   300    300    700    900
Transport wind..S 18   SE 15  SE 12  S 12   S 18   S 21
Mixing wind.....S 18   SE 15  SE 12  S 12   S 18   S 21
Haines index....4      4      4      4      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/1000103    36     3      3      12     16

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers in the
                    afternoon. Chance of showers 30 percent.
Temperature.........Max 68.
RH..................Min 38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 11 to 16 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    early in the morning increasing to 35 mph, then
                    decreasing to 25 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......800-2100 ft AGL increasing to 5500-6500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 22 to 31 mph increasing to 36 to 44 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing winds........South 22 to 31 mph increasing to 36 to 44 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to excellent (15800-62900 knot-ft)
                    increasing to excellent (203800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to or high.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Temp............50     56     62     65     67     68
RH..............66     55     44     40     39     40
20 ft wind......S 8    S 12   S 15   S 16   S 16   S 14
20 ft wind gust.15     25     30     30     35     30
Mix hgt (ft)....800    2100   3100   3900   5500   6400
Transport wind..S 22   S 31   S 38   S 41   S 44   S 41
Mixing wind.....S 22   S 31   S 38   S 41   S 44   S 41
Haines index....5      6      6      5      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100016     63     104    138    204    224

$$
Forecaster...BEITLICH
Requested by...Dan Paulson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707570.0/MPX
.EMAIL daniel_paulson@fws.gov



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