Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
556 FNUS73 KMPX 031152 FWSMPX Spot Forecast for Swede Home...FWS National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 652 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 03. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION...For the Swede Home Burn, temperatures will warm quickly from the upper 50s at ignition time to the upper 60s by early afternoon. RH values will likely remain around 40% or higher during the afternoon, but could potentially approach 35% if temperatures overachieve by a few degrees. Cloud cover increases during the afternoon with a slight chance of rain showers this afternoon & evening. Winds will be generally SW to WSW around 10 mph through mid afternoon. A wind shift is expected during the late afternoon or evening, which will result in winds becoming more northerly with speeds still around 10 mph. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of rain showers late in the afternoon. Temperature.........46 at ignition...Max 65. RH..................73 percent at ignition...Min 37 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 7 mph at ignition...otherwise West winds 7 to 8 mph shifting to the northwest 9 to 10 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor /3800 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good /54400 knot-ft/. Mixing height.......500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 9 to 13 mph shifting to the northwest around 12 mph late in the afternoon. Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5. TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM Sky cover.......CLR CLR MCR MCR PC MC MC MC CDY CDY CDY CDY Weather cov..... SCH SCH CHC Weather type.... RW RW RW Tstm cov........ Temp............46 51 54 57 59 62 64 65 65 62 58 55 RH..............73 61 54 47 44 41 38 37 38 45 51 59 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W SW SW W W NW NW N 20 FT wind spd..7 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 8 10 12 12 20 FT wind gust.10 13 13 13 10 13 13 10 13 16 17 17 Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.3 1.8 2.4 3.0 3.9 4.9 4.9 4.2 2.9 2.0 1.8 Transp wind dir.W W W W SW SW SW W W NW N N Transp wind spd.9 13 12 10 9 10 13 12 10 12 14 15 Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers likely in the evening, then rain showers overnight. Temperature.........Min 43. RH..................Max 96 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 12 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (25100 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (6800 knot-ft) late in the night. Mixing height.......900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....North 8 to 16 mph. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain showers early in the morning. Temperature.........Max 62. RH..................Min 43 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 14 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5400 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (95800 knot-ft) in the afternoon. Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 17 mph increasing to 17 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. $$ Forecaster...Dye Requested by...Millette Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2413069.0/MPX .DELDT 05/03/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL phil_millette@fws.gov