Public Information Statement
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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NOUS43 KMPX 261737
PNSMPX
MNZ041>045-047>050-055-270545-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN, MN
1237 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...


...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EVAPORATE OVER ALL OF MINNESOTA...

...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS SEEN OVER PORTION OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...MOST OF EAST CENTRAL AND MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA
...AND MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

SYNOPSIS...

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER MUCH MINNESOTA DURING
THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAS ELIMINATED ALL SEVERE DROUGHT AREAS ACROSS
THE STATE.

PRECIPITATION FOR THE PAST SEVEN DAYS ENDING MAY 26TH VARIED FROM
ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO NEAR TWO INCHES...FROM WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...TO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA PICKED UP TRACE AMOUNTS TO NEAR ONE QUARTER
OF AN INCH. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA RECEIVED
BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH TO JUST OVER ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. THIS
EQUATED TO BETWEEN TWENTY FIVE PERCENT TO NEAR ONE HUNDRED AND
TWENTY FIVE PERCENT OF MEAN PRECIPITATION. WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
OBSERVED BETWEEN ONE HALF OF AN INCH...TO NEAR TWO AND ONE QUARTER
INCHES OF MOISTURE. THIS AMOUNTED TO BETWEEN 75 PERCENT TO ONE
HUNDRED AND FIFTY PERCENT OF MEAN PRECIPITATION.

MAY PRECIPITATION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN RANGED FROM TWO INCHES
TO AS MUCH AS FOUR TO FIVE INCHES...WITH LIGHTEST AMOUNTS AS YOU GET
CLOSER TO THE MINNESOTA BORDER. THIS WAS BETWEEN 75 PERCENT TO 150
PERCENT OF MEAN PRECIPITATION.  ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MINNESOTA OBSERVES REPORTED A VARIANCE FROM NEAR TRACE TO ONE HALF
OF AN INCH AMOUNTS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST...TO BETWEEN TWO
INCHES TO NEAR SIX INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THESE AMOUNTS EQUATED TO
BETWEEN SEVENTY FIVE PERCENT TO NEAR 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

LOCAL AREAS AFFECTED.

...MINNESOTA...

MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS WERE NOTED OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND A
PORTION OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM APPLETON TO
WAITE PARK TO FORESTON.

ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS WERE SITUATED OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...SAVE FAR SOUTHEAST...EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL AND
FAR SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...WHICH WERE NOT UNDER ANY TYPE OF DROUGHT
CONDITION.

...WISCONSIN...

MODERATE DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS WERE SEEN OVER THE MAJORITY OF
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...MINUS THE EASTERN HALVES OF CHIPPEWA AND
EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES. THESE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA AND EAU
CLAIRE COUNTIES WERE DESIGNATED AS ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/.

SOIL CONDITIONS.

AS OF MAY 17TH...

...MINNESOTA...

PRECIPITATION ACROSS MINNESOTA LIMITED FARMERS TO ONLY 1.7 DAYS OF
SUITABLE FOR FIELDWORK DURING THE WEEK ENDING MAY 17TH. ALTHOUGH THIS
WAS THE LEAST AMOUNT OF DAYS SUITABLE FOR FIELDWORK SINCE THE SEASON
BEGAN...PROGRESS REMAINED AHEAD OF THE NORMAL PACE.

OF COURSE...RECENT ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS...BUT CAUSED SOME EROSION
AND PONDING. TOPSOIL MOISTURE SUPPLIES WERE RATED 1 PERCENT VERY
SHORT...5 PERCENT SHORT...80 PERCENT ADEQUATE...AND 14 PERCENT
SURPLUS. SUBSOIL MOISTURE LEVELS WERE RATED 2 PERCENT VERY SHORT
...15 PERCENT SHORT...81 PERCENT ADEQUATE...AND 2 PERCENT SURPLUS.

SEVENTY TWO PERCENT OF THE MINNESOTA CORN CROP HAD EMERGED...ALMOST
TWO WEEKS AHEAD OF THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE. SOYBEAN PLANTING INCREASED
NINE PERCENTAGE POINTS DURING THE WEEK TO 79 PERCENT COMPLETE. TWENTY
ONE PERCENT OF THE SOYBEAN ACREAGE HAD EMERGED...TWELVE DAYS AHEAD
OF AVERAGE. NINETY PERCENT OF THE SPRING WHEAT ACREAGE HAD
EMERGED...FOUR WEEKS AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS YEAR...AND JUST OVER 3
WEEKS AHEAD OF NORMAL.


...WISCONSIN...

THERE WERE 4.5 DAYS SUITABLE FOR FIELDWORK DURING THE WEEK ENDING
MAY 17TH.  TEMPERATURES WERE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR ALL BUT A
FEW COUNTIES...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S IN SOME
AREAS MID-WEEK.

TOPSOIL MOISTURES FOR WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ENDING ON MAY 17TH WERE
ZERO PERCENT VERY SHORT...13 PERCENT SHORT...77 PERCENT ADEQUATE AND
TEN PERCENT SURPLUS. SUBSOIL MOISTURE WAS 1 PERCENT VERY SHORT...22
PERCENT SHORT...74 PERCENT ADEQUATE...AND THREE PERCENT SURPLUS.

CORN PLANTED WAS 85 PERCENT COMPLETE...THE MOST PLANTED SINCE THE
YEAR 2000...WHEN 88 PERCENT OF THE CROP HAD BEEN PLANTED.  CORN
EMERGED WAS 41 PERCENT...ALMOST TWO WEEKS AHEAD OF LAST YEAR AND 9
DAYS AHEAD OF THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE.

OATS PLANTED WAS AT 96 PERCENT COMPLETE...OVER THREE WEEKS AHEAD OF
LAST YEAR AND MORE THEN 2 WEEKS AHEAD OF THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE. OAT
EMERGED WAS 82 PERCENT.

SOYBEANS PLANTED WAS AT 50 PERCENT COMPLETE...THE SECOND HIGHEST
PERCENT BY THIS DATE IN MORE THEN 35 YEARS. SOYBEANS EMERGED WAS
9 PERCENT...ONE WEEK AHEAD OF THE FIVE YEAR AVERAGE.


RIVER AND STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS.

AS OF MAY 26TH...RIVER FLOWS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
MINNESOTA HAD IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS. MOST
REPORTING LOCATIONS WERE NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. WATER FLOW
OVER THESE LOCATIONS AVERAGED BETWEEN 50 PERCENT TO 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS AS MUCH AS 400 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.

AS OF MAY 26TH...ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...RIVER FLOWS VARIED
BETWEEN 70 PERCENT TO 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ON THE JUMP RIVE AT
SHELDON THE RIVER LEVEL WAS A VERY HEALTHY 365% OF NORMAL.  MOST OF
THESE LOCATIONS WERE REPORTING RIVER LEVELS FROM NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL CONDITIONS...AS PERSISTENT MODERATE RAINFALL DURING THE PAST
WEEK NOTICEABLY IMPROVED RIVER HEIGHTS.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE DROUGHT AREA TODAY...THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OF BETWEEN
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...TO NEAR TWO INCHES SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS PICKING UP AS MUCH
AS THREE ADDITIONAL INCHES OF MOISTURE.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.

...MINNESOTA...

AS OF MAY 22ND...THE FIRE DANGER RATING FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF MINNESOTA WAS LOW. FOR A SMALL PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...THE FIRE DANGER RATING WAS MODERATE.  BURNING PERMITS
ARE REQUIRED STATEWIDE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON BURNING PERMITS IN MINNESOTA...VISIT THE
MINNESOTA DNR WEB SITE OR CALL 1-888-MINNDNR...OR IN THE TWIN
CITIES METRO CALL 651-296-6157.

...WISCONSIN...

AS OF MAY 26TH...THE FIRE DANGER RATING FOR ST CROIX...PIERCE...DUNN
...PEPIN...AND EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES WAS MODERATE. THE REMAINDER OF
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WAS UNDER A LOW FIRE DANGER RATING.  PLEASE
VISIT THE WISCONSIN DNR WEB SITE FOR CURRENT BURNING RESTRICTIONS OR
CALL 1-888-WIS-BURN (947-2876).


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...

AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER TENTH OF AN INCH...TO AS MUCH AS ONE INCH OF
MOISTURE INTO THIS EVENING...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GRANITE FALLS
TO CAMBRIDGE MN...AND ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

ANOTHER SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...AND TREK OVER THE DROUGHT REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER THREE TENTHS OF AN
INCH...TO NEAR EIGHT TENTHS OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE UNTIL NEXT
TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
BRINGS ANOTHER ONE HALF INCH...TO NEAR ONE AND ONE QUARTER INCHES OF
RAINFALL...ON AVERAGE...ACROSS THE DROUGHT REGION. THE AMOUNT OF
TOTAL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY SHOULD DECREASE THE
AREA OF MODERATE DROUGHT CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS THE AREA...AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT THE AMOUNT OF ABNORMALLY DRY AREAS AS WELL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT RETREAT INTO THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S ON FRIDAY. THE MID 60S WILL BE SEEN FOR THE WEEKENED...WITH
A WARM UP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM THE
NATIONAL CLIMATE CENTER IS PREDICTING A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

THE THREE MONTH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ENDING IN
AUGUST...FROM THE NATIONAL CLIMATE CENTER IS PREDICTING EQUAL
CHANCES FOR NORMAL...BELOW NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE U.S. MONTHLY DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID FOR MAY 2015 INDICATED THAT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THE U.S SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK VALID THROUGH AUGUST 31, 2015...
INDICATES CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...AND IMPROVE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF MINNESOTA.

EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. POSITIVE EQUATORIAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE PACIFIC
OCEAN. THERE IS APPROXIMATELY A 90% CHANCE THAT EL NINO CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SUMMER OF 2015...AND A
GREATER THEN 80% CHANCE IT WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED IF DROUGHT CONDITIONS DEGRADE INTO THE
SEVERE DROUGHT /D2/ CATEGORY.


&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/
MIDWESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...
HTTP://MCC.SWS.UIUC.EDU/INDEX.JSP

WISCONSIN STATE CLIMATOLOGY OFFICE...
HTTP://WWW.AOS.WISC.EDU/~SCO/
MINNESOTA CLIMATOLOGY WORKING GROUP...HTTP://CLIMATE.UMN.EDU/
DETAILED CROP INFORMATION AT USDA PUBLICATIONS WEB SITE...
HTTP://WWW.NASS.USDA.GOV/PUBLICATIONS/STATE_CROP_PROGRESS_AND_
CONDITION/INDEX.ASP
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION:

NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE...HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/CPC...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA`S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER
...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS...AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES
...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA ...USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS REPORT PLEASE
CONTACT:

CRAIG SCHMIDT OR TONY ZALESKI
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
CHANHASSEN, MN 55317
952-368-2542
CRAIG.SCHMIDT@NOAA.GOV



$$



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