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Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
000
FGUS73 KMPX 291507 CCA
ESFMSP
MNC003-009-013-015-019-023-037-049-053-073-079-103-123-127-129-139-
141-143-145-153-163-171-173-WIC011-035-091-093-109-102359-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...CORRETION FOR DAY ISSUED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1005 AM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013
IN TABLE 1 BELOW, THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS GREATER THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 4/1/2013 - 6/30/2013
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS 6.0 15.0 16.0 : 6 21 <5 <5 <5 <5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM 11.0 13.0 16.0 : 23 32 9 18 <5 8
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO 14.0 16.0 17.5 : 86 39 37 26 6 6
GRANITE FALLS 888.5 893.5 896.5 : 31 24 <5 <5 <5 <5
MANKATO 22.0 25.0 30.0 : <5 11 <5 8 <5 <5
HENDERSON 732.0 736.0 739.5 : <5 19 <5 8 <5 <5
JORDAN 25.0 28.0 34.0 : 14 27 <5 14 <5 <5
SAVAGE 702.0 710.0 712.0 : 65 60 8 13 <5 8
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE 6.0 8.0 10.0 : >95 37 19 <5 <5 <5
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD 6.0 7.0 9.0 : 11 16 <5 6 <5 <5
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER 11.0 15.0 16.0 : 18 24 <5 9 <5 9
DELANO 16.5 17.5 18.5 : 8 18 <5 9 <5 9
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 14 21 <5 13 <5 9
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD 9.0 10.0 11.0 : 52 18 32 9 13 <5
ANOKA 838.0 840.0 841.0 : 19 13 <5 8 <5 6
MINNEAPOLIS 16.0 16.5 17.0 : 11 8 8 8 <5 8
ST PAUL 14.0 15.0 17.0 : 24 23 18 19 8 13
HASTINGS L/D#2 15.0 17.0 18.0 : 39 31 16 19 9 13
RED WING L/D#3 680.5 681.5 683.0 : 23 24 9 16 <5 6
RED WING 14.0 15.0 16.0 : 26 24 11 16 6 13
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER 87.0 88.0 89.0 : 8 16 <5 8 <5 6
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK 11.0 14.0 17.0 : 27 26 9 11 <5 <5
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE 773.0 776.0 778.0 : <5 23 <5 8 <5 <5
DURAND 13.0 15.5 17.0 : 18 49 <5 13 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 4/1/2013 - 6/30/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.4 5.3 5.8 8.9
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM 7.2 7.3 7.7 9.0 11.0 13.0 14.4
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO 13.5 13.9 14.3 15.8 16.3 17.1 18.2
GRANITE FALLS 886.3 886.4 886.6 888.0 888.6 889.9 891.2
MANKATO 9.1 9.8 11.5 13.3 16.7 19.4 23.5
HENDERSON 722.4 723.1 724.9 726.5 729.3 731.4 735.3
JORDAN 14.1 15.3 18.0 20.4 24.3 26.1 30.0
SAVAGE 697.1 698.4 701.0 703.7 706.8 708.7 712.8
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE 6.4 6.6 7.0 7.5 7.9 8.4 9.0
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD 3.3 3.6 4.0 4.8 5.6 6.3 6.9
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER 6.1 6.2 7.1 9.1 10.6 12.4 16.6
DELANO 10.7 10.8 11.5 13.6 15.2 16.3 20.1
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD 4.4 4.6 5.3 7.2 8.6 10.9 15.3
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD 7.9 8.1 8.7 9.3 10.4 11.6 12.2
ANOKA 834.3 834.7 835.5 836.6 837.7 839.2 839.8
MINNEAPOLIS 9.4 10.0 11.0 12.5 14.1 16.1 16.9
ST PAUL 7.4 7.9 9.4 11.7 14.2 16.7 18.5
HASTINGS L/D#2 10.1 10.6 12.3 14.5 16.4 18.0 19.1
RED WING L/D#3 675.3 675.8 677.0 678.7 680.3 681.5 682.3
RED WING 9.1 9.5 10.6 12.5 14.1 15.3 16.1
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER 81.0 81.4 82.4 84.1 85.6 86.8 87.6
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK 7.6 7.7 8.2 8.9 11.7 14.6 16.8
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE 763.8 764.2 765.3 766.5 769.5 772.0 773.6
DURAND 8.4 8.6 9.4 10.5 12.7 14.2 15.3
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR
THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 4/1/2013 - 6/30/2013
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:REDWOOD RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.5
:COTTONWOOD RIVER
NEW ULM 3.7 3.5 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.1
:MINNESOTA RIVER
MONTEVIDEO 4.1 3.4 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2
GRANITE FALLS 882.7 882.2 881.8 881.8 881.7 881.6 881.6
MANKATO 4.8 4.5 4.3 4.0 3.3 2.8 2.6
HENDERSON 717.2 716.3 716.0 715.3 713.6 712.2 711.8
JORDAN 8.3 7.7 7.4 7.0 5.8 5.0 4.8
SAVAGE 688.0 687.9 687.7 687.6 687.6 687.5 687.4
:LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
LONG PRAIRIE 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
:SAUK RIVER
ST CLOUD 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2
:SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER
MAYER 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.3 0.8
DELANO 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.4 4.9
:CROW RIVER
ROCKFORD 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.7
:MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST CLOUD 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4
ANOKA 831.2 831.2 831.2 831.2 831.2 831.2 831.2
MINNEAPOLIS 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3
ST PAUL 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
HASTINGS L/D#2 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
RED WING L/D#3 667.0 667.0 667.0 667.0 667.0 667.0 667.0
RED WING 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 1.9
:ST CROIX RIVER
STILLWATER 75.4 75.4 75.3 75.3 75.3 75.3 75.2
:EAU CLAIRE RIVER
FALL CREEK 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6
:CHIPPEWA RIVER
EAU CLAIRE 759.0 758.9 758.9 758.8 758.6 758.5 758.5
DURAND 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.5
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS PREVAILED IN MARCH.
LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGED BETWEEN 1 TO 2.5 INCHES. THIS IS
NEARLY 1 INCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NEAR NORMAL ELSEWHERE.
AS OF MARCH 25TH...SNOW DEPTHS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE DEEPEST SNOWPACK IS IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI AND UPPER MINNESOTA
RIVER VALLEYS WHERE DEPTHS ARE 1.5 TO OVER 2 FEET. FOR THE
CHIPPEWA RIVER IN WISCONSIN...1 TO 2 FEET SNOW DEPTHS ARE PREVALENT.
ACROSS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHICH INCLUDES THE BLUE
EARTH...LE SUEUR...COBB AND CANNON RIVERS...SNOW DEPTHS ARE 6
INCHES AND LESS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER IN
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTH WEST MINNESOTA HAVE COMPLETELY MELTED THEIR
SNOWPACK.
GIVEN THE MINOR MELTING AS WELL AS THE RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON MARCH 9TH...SOME WATER
HAS BEEN ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE MAIN RIVERS. HOWEVER MUCH OF
THE WATER SIMPLY REFROZE IN THE CREEKS AND FIELDS CREATING ICE
SHEETS. FARTHER NORTH WERE THE SNOWPACK IS THICKER...MUCH OF THE
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN SIMPLY ABSORBED IN TO THE SNOW PACK AND
FORMED ICE LAYERS. HENCE THE AMOUNT OF WATER IN THE SNOWPACK VARIES
SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI UPSTREAM
OF ANOKA AND IN MINNESOTA RIVER BASIN FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
RIVER...AMOUNTS RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 INCHES. IN THE CHIPPEWA RIVER
SYSTEM...2 TO 4 INCHES ARE PREVALENT. FOR THE BLUE EARTH...LE
SUEUR...COBB AND CANNON RIVERS...A TRACE TO POCKETS OF 3 PLUS INCHES
ARE THE RULE.
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WATER IN THE SNOW PACK IN THE UPPER MINNESOTA
AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASINS...THE RISK OF FLOODING FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS HAS INCREASED.
NOW AN ABOVE NORMAL RISK FOR FLOODING EXISTS FOR
LONG PRAIRIE ON THE LONG PRAIRIE RIVER
ST CLOUD ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MONTEVIDEO ON THE MINNESOTA RIVER
NORMAL RISK FOR FLOODING FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ST CLOUD ON THE SAUK RIVER
REDWOOD FALLS ON THE REDWOOD RIVER
SOUTH FORK OF THE CROW RIVER AT MAYER
NEW ULM ON THE COTTONWOOD RIVER
GRANITE FALLS ON THE MINNESOTA RIVER
SAVAGE ON THE MINNESOTA RIVER
ANOKA ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MINNEAPOLIS ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ST PAUL ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
HASTINGS ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LOCK AND DAM 3 ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
RED WING ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
EAU CLAIRE RIVER AT FALL CREEK
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RISK OF FLOODING SEE TABLE 1 AND 2 ABOVE.
FOR A QUICK REFERENCE MAP OF THE RISK OF FLOODING
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/NCRFC/?N=SPROUTLOOKCURRENT
IN ADDITION TO THE RIVER FLOOD THREAT...CONCERN EXISTS FOR BROADER
AREAL FLOODING AS WELL. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE SEEN ABOVE FREEZING
DAYTIME HIGHS THIS PAST WEEK ...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE STILL BEEN BELOW FREEZING. HENCE THE
CONCRETE FROST IS STILL IN PLACE.
THE CHALLENGE WITH CONCRETE FROST IS IF WE HAVE A RAPID WARM UP
AND OR A RAIN ON SNOW EVENT...AND THE TOP SOIL LAYER IS NOT
ABLE TO THAW...THEN MOST OF THE SNOW MELT AND INITIAL RAINFALL WILL
RAPIDLY RUNOFF VS PECULATING INTO THE SOIL OR THE SOIL WILL ACT LIKE
CONCRETE. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF RAINFALL. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE THAW...WE WILL BE ABLE TO
PROVIDE FURTHER DETAILS ON HOW THE CONCRETE FROST WILL AFFECT SPRING
RUNOFF.
WITH THE LATER ESTABLISHMENT OF THE SNOWPACK...FROST DEPTHS OR DEPTH
THAT THE GROUND TEMPERATURE IS AT FREEZING OR LOWER...RANGE
SIGNIFICANTLY. ON THE HIGH END...BLOOMER WISCONSIN IS REPORTING 40
INCHES AND WATSON MN HAS 41 INCHES. THE FROST DEPT IS SHALLOWER AT
LONG PRAIRIE WHICH IS NOW AT 10 INCHES. IN AREAS THAT HAVE
MAINTAINED A SNOWPACK THROUGH THE WINTER...THE FROST WILL BE
SHALLOWER. THE FROST IS DEEPER IN AREAS THAT EARLIER THIS WINTER HAD
A COLD OUTBREAK WITH LITTLE SNOWPACK TO INSULATE THE GROUND AND THEN
THE SNOW STARTED ACCUMULATING.
A KEY FACTOR ABOUT FROST DEPTH IS THIS PARAMETER INDICATES HOW DEEP
THE SOIL TEMPERATURE IS BELOW FREEZING. ONE CAN NOT INFER MOISTURE
CONTENT FROM THE FROST MEASUREMENT. MOISTURE CONTENT IS EVALUATED
WITH SOIL CORE MEASUREMENTS. THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA
AGRICULTURAL STATIONS ARE NOT ABLE TO TAKE SOIL CORES IN THE WINTER.
BUT WITH THEIR LAST MEASUREMENT IN MID NOVEMBER SOILS WERE
EXCEEDINGLY DRY THROUGH THE TOP 6 FEET.
EVEN WITH DECENT MOISTURE IN THE SNOWPACK...THE ENTIRE REGION
IS STILL FACING DROUGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO THE LONG TERM
PRECIPITATION DEFICITS. THE LONG TERM PRECIPITATION DEFICITS FROM
JULY 2012 UNTIL PRESENT IS 4 TO 10 INCHES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DEFICITS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THE DROUGHT STATUS GENERALLY DOES NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE FROZEN SEASON AS THERE ARE TOO MANY UNKNOWNS OF
HOW THE THAW WILL EVOLVE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE THIS YEAR
WERE WE HAVE THE CONCRETE IN PLACE...AS A RAPID RUNOFF WOULD
NOT HELP ALLEVIATE THE LONG TERM AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT.
THE DROUGHT MONITOR ISSUED ON MARCH 26...CONTINUED TO SHOW
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN THIRDS OF MINNESOTA AS WELL
AS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN EITHER D2 SEVERE DROUGHT TO D3
EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE LOWER PART OF THE
CANNON RIVER IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHICH IS IN D1 OR MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT MONITOR REFERENCE
WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
FOR FURTHER DETAILS ABOUT THE ONGOING DROUGHT...REFERENCE THE LATEST
STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
HTTP://FORECAST.WEATHER.GOV/PRODUCT.PHP?SITE=MPX&ISSUEDBY=
MPX&PRODUCT=DGT
THE MINNESOTA CLIMATE WORKING GROUP ALSO HAS A DROUGHT WEBSITE
HTTP://CLIMATE.UMN.EDU/DROUGHT
FROM A TEMPERATURE PERSPECTIVE...AVERAGE TEMPERATURES HAVE
RANGED BETWEEN 15 AND 25 DEGREES WHICH IS 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
MOST RIVERS IN THE UPPER MINNESOTA...MISSISSIPPI AND CHIPPEWA
VALLEYS ARE STILL FROZEN AND THEIR READINGS ARE ICE IMPACTED...SO
FLOW DATA IS NOT AVAILABLE. FOR THE LOWER CHIPPEWA RIVER BASIN AND
MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WE HAVE SEEN SOME MELT CYCLES. SO AT TIME THE
RIVERS WILL FLOW FOR AWHILE AND THEN ICE BACK OVER.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STAGES OR STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS FOR
USGS LOCATIONS REFERENCE
FOR MINNESOTA WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/MN/NWIS/RT
FOR WISCONSIN WWW.WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/WI/NWIS/RT
FOR A HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF THE YEAR ROUND MAINTAINED RIVER GAGES
BY THE MN USGS...REFERENCE IN LOWER CASE.
MN.WATER.USGS.GOV/FLOOD/DURATION/INDEX.HTML
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON STAGES OR STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS AT MN
DNR LOCATIONS REFERENCE
WWW.DNR.STATE.MN.US/WATERS/CSG/INDEX.HTML
OR
CLIMATE.UMN.EDU/DOW/WEEKLY_STREAM_FLOW/STREAM_FLOW_WEEKLY.ASP
IN ADDITION TO FLOW INFORMATION...THE USGS AND MN DNR PROVIDES
REPORTS OF RIVER ICE THICKNESS AND ICE TYPE. THIS GIVES A CONTEXT
FOR ICE JAM POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE CONTINUED COLD...ICE THICKNESS HAVE
INCREASED. SEVERAL AREAS IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER SYSTEM
MAINLY FOR ANOKA AND NORTH HAVE 1.5 TO OVER 2 FEET OF ICE. THE UPPER
MINNESOTA RIVER HAS GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET OF SOLID ICE. THE
THICKENING OF THE ICE HAS INCREASED THE THREAT FOR ICE
JAMS...ESPECIALLY IF WE EXPERIENCE A RAPID MELT. JAMS WILL BE
PREVALENT IN WITH RIVER BENDS AND ON BRIDGES. IF YOU SEE A JAM
PLEASE REPORT THIS TO THE NWS IMMEDIATELY.
THE OUTLOOKS INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL LOOKS TO BE BELOW NORMAL
FOR TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
FOR APRIL AS A WHOLE...THE OUTLOOK SHOWS EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND TRENDS OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR APRIL...MAY AND JUNE SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN BUT EQUAL CHANGES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTION MINNESOTA. FOR
PRECIPITATION...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE.
FROM A BIGGER PICTURE PERSPECTIVE...WHETHER OR NOT THE CURRENT
SNOWPACK AND PRECIPITATION IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS WILL HELP
ALLEVIATE THE DROUGHT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
RECOVERY OF SOIL MOISTURE IS DEPENDENT ON THE TYPE OF MELT AND
WHETHER THE MOISTURE IS ABLE TO INFILTRATE INTO THE SOILS VS RUNNING
DIRECTLY INTO THE RIVERS. IN ADDITION...EVEN THOUGH THE THREE MONTH
DROUGHT OUTLOOK SNOWS IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE END OF JUNE...THE
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTLOOK IS LOWER SINCE WE DO NOT HAVE ABOVE OR
BELOW NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO HELP
FOCUS THE FORECAST DECISIONS. FINALLY FOR THE THREE MONTH
PERIOD...THE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNT IS ROUGHLY 8 TO 12 INCHES.
SO WHILE THE DROUGHT OUTLOOK DOES INDICATE SOME
IMPROVEMENT...OVERALL THE CONCERN FOR DROUGHT CONTINUES INTO JUNE.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS REFERENCE
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
TABLE 3 LISTED ABOVE PROVIDES A PERSPECTIVE OF THE RISK OF LOW FLOW.
THE RISK OF A LOCATION FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
PROVIDES INSIGHT OF HOW LOW THE RIVER COULD DROP THROUGH THE END OF
MAY.
PROBABILISTIC LOW FLOW OR NON EXCEEDANCE INFORMATION IS ALSO
AVAILABLE ON THE NWS AHPS WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=MPX.
LOOK UNDER THE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SECTION...LOOK FOR THE RED
HIGHLIGHTED LINK OF /HOW LOW THE RIVER COULD GO/ FOR THE LOW FLOW
AND STAGE GRAPHICS.
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE
OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE
PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.
ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT
ON THE INTERNET AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TWINCITIES (LOWER CASE)
THE NEXT OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED THE END OF APRIL.
$$
DFC
- National Weather Service
- Twin Cities, MN Weather Forecast Office
- 1733 Lake Drive West
- Chanhassen, MN 55317-8581
- 952-361-6670
- Page Author: MPX Webmaster
- Web Master's E-mail: w-mpx.webmaster@noaa.gov
- Page last modified: May 1st, 2013 15:31 UTC