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000
FXUS64 KOHX 131125
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
625 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Friday`s gusty winds have died down and skies have cleared as a
surface ridge has moved over the area. Temperatures have cooled
into the 40s. For the daytime, beautiful conditions are expected
as the surface ridge remains in place under a building upper
ridge. Skies will be sunny with highs from the upper 60s to upper
70s. Winds will be much lighter than yesterday.

For tonight, the surface ridge will slide east and mild south
southwest winds will develop. Lows will fall only in the 50s.

Sunday will be a warmer day with increasing southwest breezes.
The day will be mainly nice and sunny, but we have added a small
chance for showers or thunderstorms north of I-40. A disturbance
passing across the Ohio Valley will enhance instability and may
provide just enough lift for this small rain chance. Some CAMs
show a few cells developing within a zone of steep mid level lapse
rates and cape values of 200-500 J/kg. The NBM stays dry,
probably because forecast soundings show a cap in place. So,
overall we think a 20 pop is justified at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Warm wx will continue Monday and Tuesday with some areas possibly
reaching the mid 80s. Lows will be quite mild as well, in the 50s
to mid 60s. A strong upper level ridge will bring rain-free
conditions Monday and most of Tuesday.

A strong low pressure system over the Central Plains will be
producing stormy wx over the Plains and Ms Valley Monday and
Tuesday, and this system will impact our area Tuesday night
through Wednesday. The main low and greatest wind energy will lift
up to the Great Lakes. But, models show our area having an axis
of deep moisture and instability ahead of the surface front on
Wednesday. Severe weather is certainly a concern, but this is
several days in the future and models have not yet been
consistent with details and timing for our area.

After that, another cold front will drop into the ares with
shower chances for Thursday. The series of cold fronts will set us
up for some much cooler and dry wx for next weekend. Well below
normal temps are expected with lows likely dropping into the 30s
and lower 40s with highs in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions expected for this TAF cycle. While winds will be
considerably less than yesterday for most sites, CSV may still see
a few gusts to 20 kts this afternoon. Some wind shear will be
possible towards the end of the cycle at CKV/BNA/MQY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      77  57  82  61 /   0   0  10  10
Clarksville    76  59  79  62 /   0   0  20  10
Crossville     67  51  76  56 /   0   0  20  10
Columbia       77  57  81  59 /   0   0  10  10
Cookeville     69  54  77  58 /   0   0  20  10
Jamestown      68  52  76  57 /   0   0  20  20
Lawrenceburg   76  56  79  59 /   0   0  10  10
Murfreesboro   77  55  81  59 /   0   0  10  10
Waverly        77  59  80  61 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Unger