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000
FXUS61 KOKX 191601
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1201 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will weaken this afternoon as a
cold front approaches the area from the west by tonight. The
cold front moves through the area tonight and into early
Saturday, followed by a secondary dry cold frontal passage
Saturday afternoon. High pressure builds in for the beginning of
the week. A weak frontal system will impact the region mid-
week. High pressure returns to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast remains on track through the rest of the afternoon.
Made some adjustments to lower PoPs in the afternoon as
guidance continues to indicate any showers remaining west of the
area before 6 pm.

Surface high pressure over the area will gradually weaken and
push out of the area into the afternoon as a cold front
approaches from the west. Chances for showers will begin to
increase this evening from west to east with the closer
proximity of the front and associated lift. Highs will be in
the middle to upper 50s.

Showers become likely overnight for much of the area as the
front pushes through. Showers may become more widespread early
Saturday morning as lift is enhanced by divergence aloft ahead
of an approaching jet streak aloft. Lows overnight will be in
the middle to upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Much of the rainfall should be tapering from west to east into
Saturday morning. Lingering showers appear likely across eastern
Long Island and southeast CT before completely moving out of
by midday Saturday. Total rainfall accumulation of generally
around a quarter inch or less is expected. Some areas to the
northeast of the area may see between a quarter inch and a half
inch of rain. A secondary cold front moves through during the
afternoon and evening Saturday and while it is expected to be a
dry passage, a stray shower can`t be ruled out. Temperatures on
Saturday should rebound nicely with highs in the middle to
potentially upper 60s for much of the area.

Surface high pressure will attempt to build back in from the
west Saturday night and into the second half of the weekend,
allowing for generally dry conditions with mostly clear skies.
Highs Sunday will be a bit cooler than Saturday with
temperatures in the upper 50s expected. With high pressure
building in and skies clearing out, lows both Saturday and
Sunday night may drop into the 30s for inland areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain in control of the weather through
Tuesday.

A 500mb trough will move through the Great Lakes on Tuesday
with an associated weak surface low and cold front. This system
will approach the region Tuesday night and move across the area
on Wednesday. Expect rain chances to increase Tuesday night
into Wednesday. The cold front moves east of the region
Wednesday night with drier weather returning to end the week.

Temperatures will remain near normal through much of the long term
period, except for Thursday, when temperatures will be a few degrees
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will weaken this afternoon as a cold front
approaches from the west by tonight. The front will move through
late tonight into early daytime Saturday.

Still mainly VFR through this afternoon. A few dissipating
showers may approach the western terminals toward 22Z, after
which time cigs at the NYC metros should also lower to MVFR in
SE flow. Cigs should eventually lower to IFR by about 03Z-04Z at
the NYC metros and 05Z-06Z farther north/east, with showers
arriving from the west. Can`t rule out TEMPO LIFR cigs
especially at terminals closest to the coast but for now will be
more optimistic.

...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

High confidence in winds. No unscheduled AMD expected, but 18Z
TAF and later AMD`s will fine tune timing of arrival of lower
cigs and showers late today/tonight.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: IFR early at KISP/KBDR/KGON and MVFR elsewhere,
improving to VFR by 14Z-15Z at most sites, 16Z at KGON.
W-WNW winds G15-25kt possible late.

Sunday: VFR. W winds G15-20 kt possible near the coast in the
afternoon/evening.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA seas remain on the ocean waters through today with waves
just over 5 feet. Have extended the SCA through 06z tonight as
there is a likelihood of 5 ft seas lingering overnight. Seas
should subside below 5 ft by early Saturday morning.

High pressure should then keep conditions at sub-advisory levels
through at least Tuesday night. Conditions may build back to
SCA levels on Wednesday with the next low pressure and
associated cold front to approach.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through next Thursday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MW
NEAR TERM...DS/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC/Goodman
MARINE...BC/MW
HYDROLOGY...BC