Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
000
FXUS66 KOTX 282247
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
347 PM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue with gusty
winds, brief downpours and isolated lightning. Showers will
continue into Friday with a small chance for thunderstorms
northeast Washington into North Idaho. Then a warming and drying
trend is expected through the weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday Night: Showers have popped up across the
Eastern third of Washington and ID Panhandle along with a few
isolated lightning strikes. With these showers you can expect brief
downpours, winds up to 30 mph, graupel/small hail and isolated
lightning. As the showers continue during the afternoon heating,
decreasing this evening as the sun begins to set. Temperatures
remain cooler this afternoon with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Breezy southwest winds will continue in the western portion of the
Columbia Basin up through the Okanogan Valley through the afternoon
gusts to 25 mph.
Tonight, lingering showers will remain over the mountains, with less
intensity from what is seen this afternoon. Light rain could
transition to snow in areas where temperatures fall below freezing,
but any amounts will remain light. Temperatures will drop into the
low 30s again tonight, but remain only a degree or two below normal
for this time of year.
Friday will feel like deja vu with a calm morning and showers
returning in the afternoon. There will be slightly less coverage but
we can`t rule out brief downpours and isolated lightning strikes
with any shower that forms. These showers will again dissipate
around sunset as the temperatures cool overnight. Expect high
temperatures to be a degree or two warmer than today. /KM
Saturday and Sunday: The Inland Northwest will remain under an
unstable air mass on Saturday for another afternoon of convective
shower development, although warming aloft as an upper level ridge
begins to nudge into the region from the west-northwest will shrink
the coverage to the central and southern Idaho Panhandle. Surface
winds will shift to the north as high pressure builds over British
Columbia, with breezy north winds down the Okanogan Valley Saturday
afternoon. A weak wave sliding down the eastern edge of the ridge
Sunday morning will enhance mixing with models showing stronger
sustained winds on Sunday of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
The National Blend of Models is currently showing a 50-70% chance
for gusts of 30 mph or above for Tonasket through Ephrata.
Monday through Thursday: Models are in good agreement for an upper
level ridge to quickly shift over Washington early Monday and become
centered over the Inland Northwest by Tuesday. This will bring drier
air and clear skies across the region. Temperatures will warm into
the 60s and 70s for Monday and Tuesday region wide.
Warm temperatures will not be here for long as the next weather
system approaches the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. In general,
models are in good agreement on the presence of this system to bring
relatively cooler temperatures, the return of precipitation
(mountain snow, lowland rain/snow), and breezy winds. The Weather
Prediction Center ensemble clusters reveal some discrepancies on the
timing of the approaching weather system which results in a good
amount of uncertainty in the timing of precipitation and a large
spread in the high temperature forecast for Wednesday. Nothing
currently raises alarms in terms of widespread moderate or above
impacts, but we will continue to monitor this period over the next
couple of days. /vmt
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Showers and thunderstorms will continue across Eastern
WA and ID Panhandle through the evening mainly east of KGEG, with
continued showers over the mountains tonight. Winds will become
light and variable overnight with a low chance of fog formation
along low valleys and near rivers.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence is low
for overnight fog.
------------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 33 51 30 55 32 58 / 50 10 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 33 49 29 53 30 56 / 50 20 0 0 10 0
Pullman 33 49 30 54 32 55 / 40 30 0 0 10 10
Lewiston 38 56 36 59 37 61 / 60 20 0 0 0 10
Colville 31 51 27 54 28 58 / 60 30 10 0 0 0
Sandpoint 34 47 29 51 30 54 / 80 50 0 10 10 10
Kellogg 35 46 31 51 32 53 / 70 50 0 10 10 10
Moses Lake 33 57 32 61 35 64 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 35 54 36 59 37 63 / 30 10 0 0 0 0
Omak 35 56 32 59 34 64 / 30 30 10 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$