Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 282247
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
347 PM PDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue with gusty
winds, brief downpours and isolated lightning. Showers will
continue into Friday with a small chance for thunderstorms
northeast Washington into North Idaho. Then a warming and drying
trend is expected through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Friday Night: Showers have popped up across the
Eastern third of Washington and ID Panhandle along with a few
isolated lightning strikes. With these showers you can expect brief
downpours, winds up to 30 mph, graupel/small hail and isolated
lightning. As the showers continue during the afternoon heating,
decreasing this evening as the sun begins to set. Temperatures
remain cooler this afternoon with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Breezy southwest winds will continue in the western portion of the
Columbia Basin up through the Okanogan Valley through the afternoon
gusts to 25 mph.

Tonight, lingering showers will remain over the mountains, with less
intensity from what is seen this afternoon. Light rain could
transition to snow in areas where temperatures fall below freezing,
but any amounts will remain light. Temperatures will drop into the
low 30s again tonight, but remain only a degree or two below normal
for this time of year.

Friday will feel like deja vu with a calm morning and showers
returning in the afternoon. There will be slightly less coverage but
we can`t rule out brief downpours and isolated lightning strikes
with any shower that forms. These showers will again dissipate
around sunset as the temperatures cool overnight. Expect high
temperatures to be a degree or two warmer than today. /KM

Saturday and Sunday: The Inland Northwest will remain under an
unstable air mass on Saturday for another afternoon of convective
shower development, although warming aloft as an upper level ridge
begins to nudge into the region from the west-northwest will shrink
the coverage to the central and southern Idaho Panhandle. Surface
winds will shift to the north as high pressure builds over British
Columbia, with breezy north winds down the Okanogan Valley Saturday
afternoon. A weak wave sliding down the eastern edge of the ridge
Sunday morning will enhance mixing with models showing stronger
sustained winds on Sunday of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
The National Blend of Models is currently showing a 50-70% chance
for gusts of 30 mph or above for Tonasket through Ephrata.

Monday through Thursday: Models are in good agreement for an upper
level ridge to quickly shift over Washington early Monday and become
centered over the Inland Northwest by Tuesday. This will bring drier
air and clear skies across the region. Temperatures will warm into
the 60s and 70s for Monday and Tuesday region wide.

Warm temperatures will not be here for long as the next weather
system approaches the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. In general,
models are in good agreement on the presence of this system to bring
relatively cooler temperatures, the return of precipitation
(mountain snow, lowland rain/snow), and breezy winds. The Weather
Prediction Center ensemble clusters reveal some discrepancies on the
timing of the approaching weather system which results in a good
amount of uncertainty in the timing of precipitation and a large
spread in the high temperature forecast for Wednesday. Nothing
currently raises alarms in terms of widespread moderate or above
impacts, but we will continue to monitor this period over the next
couple of days. /vmt

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Showers and thunderstorms will continue across Eastern
WA and ID Panhandle through the evening mainly east of KGEG, with
continued showers over the mountains tonight. Winds will become
light and variable overnight with a low chance of fog formation
along low valleys and near rivers.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence is low
for overnight fog.

------------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        33  51  30  55  32  58 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  33  49  29  53  30  56 /  50  20   0   0  10   0
Pullman        33  49  30  54  32  55 /  40  30   0   0  10  10
Lewiston       38  56  36  59  37  61 /  60  20   0   0   0  10
Colville       31  51  27  54  28  58 /  60  30  10   0   0   0
Sandpoint      34  47  29  51  30  54 /  80  50   0  10  10  10
Kellogg        35  46  31  51  32  53 /  70  50   0  10  10  10
Moses Lake     33  57  32  61  35  64 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      35  54  36  59  37  63 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Omak           35  56  32  59  34  64 /  30  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$


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