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000
FXUS64 KOUN 130931
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
431 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A little warmer today (lower and middle 80s most areas) with
strong south winds. Frequent gusts between 30 mph and 40 mph
expected in many areas, but gusts over 40 mph should be hard to
come by. Without a substantial moisture increase, humidities will
combine with the gusty wind and available fuels across
northern/northwest Oklahoma to yield elevated fire weather
conditions this afternoon.

Breezy conditions expected to continue over much of the forecast
area tonight, with some weakening across northwest parts of
Oklahoma closer to a weakening trough of low pressure. Southerly
winds may actually become northerly overnight across far northwest
Oklahoma, before shifting back to southerly on Sunday. Lows mainly
in the upper half of 50s into lower 60s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Severe weather still looks likely late Monday/Monday night, despite
model trends indicating chances of convection east of the dryline
are decreasing (mainly due to extensive cloud cover keeping
temperatures down and the environment capped). Models are trending
slower and slightly farther north with upper low, resulting in a
farther north area of low level cyclogenesis (near KS/NE border).
This results in lower probabilities of higher-end discrete warm
sector supercells, but a severe squall line along pacific
front/dryline still a good bet Monday night/early Tuesday morning.
All severe weather hazards still possible with strong low and
deep layer shear near the front, with damaging wind gusts primary.

Even warmer temperatures expected on Sunday, with highs in the 90s
likely across northern and western portions of Oklahoma. Again,
moisture is slow to increase and this will result in even lower
humidities for Sunday. However, where we are most concerned with
fire weather conditions (northern/northwest Oklahoma where rain has
been lacking and green-up much slower than areas farther south)
winds should be fairly light for most of the day Sunday. This should
keep fire weather conditions from rising much from the elevated
category. Since we are mentioning fire weather, the day of most
concern is currently expected to be Tuesday across northern portions
of Oklahoma with continued warm temperatures, strong westerly winds,
and low humidities. Models continue to shift forecast position of
dryline on Monday farther west, toward and even west of the body of
Oklahoma western border during peak afternoon temperatures. It
will still be windy on Monday, but RH values forecast to be higher
than Tuesday. Caveat for Tuesday will be potential for wetting
rains Monday night across mentioned areas of concern.

Medium range models still showing a fair amount of difference on
timing/strength of cold front late next week. 00Z suite still has
GFS stronger and colder than the ECM for Thursday and Friday,
with the ECM bringing colder air in for the weekend. Any rain
chances with this next front still expected to be mainly confined
to southern/southeast portions of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 428 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

All terminals will stay within VFR conditions through the TAF
period. LLWS will affect each terminal this morning until 15Z.
LLWS will again return to all sites after 00Z Sunday and will
continue through the end of the period. Winds today will stay out
of the south-southwest, quickly becoming gusty by mid morning.
These gusty winds will continue at most sites through Sunday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  63  88  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         82  57  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  84  62  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           86  53  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     83  62  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         81  61  83  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...13