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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 142054
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
654 AM CHST SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MARIANAS ISLAND CHAIN
SITUATED BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH DEPARTING WESTWARD INTO THE
PHILIPPINE SEA AND A WEAK DEEP-LAYER LOW CENTERED JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WERE EVIDENT OVER THE FORECAST ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE AS RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE
WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS. MODEL GUIDANCE STEERS THE DEEP-
LAYER LOW SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS AND WEAKENS THIS
SYSTEM WITH TIME...LEAVING RIDGING IN PLACE OVERHEAD. SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MOISTURE TRICKLES IN FROM THE EAST ON MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...SO MAINTAINED MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME FOR NOW. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS SEASONABLY
DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS STILL EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COMBINED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE A FOOT OR TWO OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT TRADE-WIND SURGE CAUSES SEAS TO REBUILD
TO AROUND 6 FEET.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR KOSRAE ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE WEST BY MID-MORNING. A DEVELOPED BAND OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ WILL MOVE WESTWARD FROM NEAR THE DATE
LINE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THIS FEATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE EASTERN MICRONESIA
BEGINNING ON MAJURO SUNDAY...KOSRAE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POHNPEI ON
MONDAY. A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL EXIST THEREAFTER AS
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK WILL SEE SIMILARLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNTIL
ITCZ ACTIVITY MOVES TOWARDS CHUUK BY MONDAY. SATELLITE SHOWS
WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF PALAU AND YAP STATE.
THIS ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH MODELS SHOWING
CONVERGENT SOUTH WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS YAP AND KOROR. WEAK
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD OVER YAP STATE BY MONDAY...SUPPRESSING ANY
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. LENGTH OF WET CONDITIONS FOR KOROR
WILL BE DETERMINED PARTLY BY HOW FAST A WEAK CIRCULATION
CURRENTLY CENTERED EAST OF MINDANAO DEPARTS TO THE WEST. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/WILLIAMS