000
FXPQ60 PGUM 160629
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
429 PM CHST THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY SPOTTY SHOWER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE MARIANAS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SEEN
WELL TO THE SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION BETWEEN YAP AND
CHUUK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITTING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MARIANA ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE MARIANAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE COULD
DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE AS
THIS HAPPENS. IF THE WINDS BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH...ISLAND THUNDER
COULD BE A POSSIBILITY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP
CONSISTENT WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST. BY NEXT WEEK...TRADE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
AN AREA OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WITH SMALL...EMBEDDED SURFACE
TROUGHS WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES WILL EXIST IN VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AT MAJURO AND TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER KOSRAE. MODELS KEEP THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SOUTH OF POHNPEI...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

MODELS INDICATE THAT SURF HAS FALLEN BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVEL ON EAST
FACING REEFS OF KOSRAE. HAVE ENDED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THIS
ISLAND.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BE SEEN ON SATELLITE THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF PALAU. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE WEST AND BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REPUBLIC
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO YAP TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH AND ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RELATIVELY HIGHER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS PALAU AND YAP.

TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO CHUUK THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CONTINUED TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE OVER
THIS AREA WILL ALSO GENERATE A HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

M. AYDLETT/ZIOBRO