995
FXUS65 KPSR 082227
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
327 PM MST Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Near seasonal temperatures continue through the end of the work
week. There will be a gradual warming trend through the weekend and
into next week, with portions of the lower deserts nearing tripple
digits as early as Sunday. Dry conditions with typical springtime
afternoon breeziness will persist.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Large scale troughing over western CONUS will continue over the next
couple of days, with the low pressure system retrograding back into
Wyoming. A shortwave trough is currently moving through Arizona,
which is leading to some slightly elevated wind gusts this
afternoon. Wind gusts of 20-25 mph are expected through the early
evening. Near normal afternoon high temperatures are expected
through Friday thanks to the low pressure system retrograding
back to the west.

The large scale upper-level trough will start to weaken this weekend
and into next week. The trough will weaken enough to allow a ridge
to build into the Pacific Northwest, however, the desert Southwest
will remain under the influence of the weakened trough. This will
allow for a gradual warming trend into next week. Portions of the
lower desert could hit triple digits as early as Sunday, however,
much of the lower deserts are currently forecasted to only max out
in the mid-to-upper 90s this weekend through the beginning of next
week. The NBM gives the Phoenix Metro a 40% chance of reaching 100
degrees on Monday and a 50% chance on Tuesday. Typical springtime
afternoon breeziness with gusts up around 20 mph is also expected to
continue into next week. A slight increase in moisture is expected
on Sunday and for the beginning of next week, however, dry
conditions are expected for our area and any rain showers or
thunderstorms should stay in the high country.

Temperature forecast confidence deteriorates by the middle to end of
next week as ensemble guidance differs on the overall pattern. Some
models show a more potent high pressure building in over the area
whereas other models show a weak low pressure system moving over
the region. For next Thursday in Phoenix, the 25th percentile for
the NBM shows a high temperature of 97 degrees, whereas the 75th
percentile shows a high temperature of 106 degrees. The seasonable
dry conditions are expected to continue through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1735Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No significant weather issues will exist through tonight under
clear skies. Typical diurnal wind tendencies will continue, with
easterly winds becoming westerly late this morning/early
afternoon. Gusty winds up to 20-25kts should affect terminals
during this afternoon into the early evening before relaxing mid
evening and easterly winds developing once again during the
overnight hours tonight. Clear skies and light winds shifting to
westerly expected late tomorrow morning.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Gusty winds continue at KBLH associated with a frontal passage
this morning/early afternoon and will be the primary weather issue
under clear skies. Wind directions will will be northerly at KBLH
with gusts up to 30-30kts expected to subside this evening at
around 01z. Light northerly winds are expected for KIPL through
this evening where they will become light and variable throughout
the night into tomorrow morning starting at around 00z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Typical springtime breeziness with afternoon and early evening wind
gusts of 20-25 mph will persist through the weekend. These breezy
conditions combined with dry fine fuels, and low RHs will likely
create some elevated fire weather conditions. MinRHs will be in the
5-10% across the lower deserts and in the 10-15% range across the
higher terrain. Overnight recovery will be poor and in the 20-40%
range. Seasonal temperature continue through Friday before a gradual
warming trend sets in this weekend and continues into next week. Dry
conditions will also persist into next week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Berislavich
AVIATION...95
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Kuhlman