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000
FXUS61 KRNK 100542
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
142 AM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Disturbances in the upper atmosphere, combined with increased
moisture, will produce occasional rain showers through Wednesday.
A strong low pressure system will bring the possibility of heavy
rain, as well as thunderstorms for Thursday. Some showers may
linger into Friday, mainly in the west and north, and closer to
the track of the low as it exits the region. Once the low
departs, conditions should dry out for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Tuesday...

Rain has rapidly diminished over last few hours and will
continue to do so into the early overnight hours. May only have
some patchy drizzle here and there, but overall not much
precipitation expected. Some uncertainty at this point of we
see any additional shower development before daybreak. Anything
that does develop will still be very light.

Made some adjustments to the temperatures as the western
portions of the area are running a bit cooler due to abundant
clouds and rain from earlier.


Issued at 304 PM EDT Tue Apr 09 2024

Key Message:

- Unsettled weather is expected to continue, with additional
  showers later tonight and Wednesday.

A broad southwesterly flow aloft continues across the region this
afternoon ahead of a strengthening storm system near the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Weak disturbances, combined with some isentropic
ascent, has allowed a large area of light rain to be seen across
much of the western/southern parts of the forecast area through much
of the day. As this rain area moves northward through the rest of
the afternoon, I expect the areal coverage to gradually decrease.
This should give much of the area a brief break in the rain for this
evening.

With isentropic upglide along the 300K surface expected to continue
tonight in the southwesterly flow aloft, additional showers/light
rain are expected to develop later this evening and move northward
across the area overnight and into Wednesday. Similar to today, the
greatest coverage should remain over the western parts of the
forecast area. Rainfall amounts should remain light through
Wednesday.

In general, above normal temperatures will continue through
Wednesday, but will be highly dependent upon cloud cover and
precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for a cold front to bring gusty winds along
with showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.

2) A marginal risk of severe weather and a slight risk of flooding
exists during Thursday and Thursday night.

3) Gusty winds are likely after the frontal passage for Friday and
Friday night.

An intensifying low pressure system will move northeastward from the
lower Mississippi River Valley to the Appalachian Mountains on
Wednesday night. Rain chances will increase along the southern Blue
Ridge during early Thursday morning and spread across the Mid
Atlantic by midday Thursday. South winds could gust up to 30 mph
ahead of the front. Thunderstorms may arrive by Thursday afternoon
and evening with the potential for heavy rainfall and strong winds.
Wind shear is impressive in the model soundings, and precipitable
water values appear anomalously high. As a result, there is a
marginal risk of severe weather and a slight risk of flooding.
Rainfall amounts could reach up to two inches along the Blue Ridge.

Once the cold front crosses the Mid Atlantic by Thursday night,
winds should shift towards the west and accelerate on Friday. Gusts
could reach up to advisory criteria along the southern Blue Ridge
that may blow down trees and power lines more easily due to the wet
soil. Temperatures should fall back to normal values as cold air
advection increases by Friday night. Upslope rain showers should
linger through Friday and Friday night, and there is a chance that
the rain could change to snow along the higher elevations of western
Greenbrier County before the moisture dissipates.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for high pressure to bring drier weather
and lighter winds for Saturday.

2) A weak frontal boundary may provide a low chance of showers
during early next week.

High pressure should build towards the Mid Atlantic by Saturday,
which will bring drier weather. While the west wind may still remain
gusty through most of Saturday, it will slowly fade during the day
and eventually relax by Saturday night. Upper level heights should
rise on Sunday as the wind turns to the southwest. Temperatures will
respond accordingly by jumping notably above normal for the
remainder of this forecast period. Meanwhile, a weak frontal
boundary should cross the Great Lakes and dive southeastward towards
the Appalachian Mountains. The boundary lacks any significant source
of lift or deep moisture, and it will run into drier air to the
south. Thus, the chance of showers appears rather low and mostly
confined to the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Wednesday...

Cigs should soon lower to mainly MVFR level this morning along
with VCSH. A bit greater chance for -RA/-SHRA and some reduced
VSBYs in the 09-15z period. Cigs may improve a bit in the
afternoon, though some sites may stay MVFR. Initial winds mainly
SW near 5 kts or less, then increasing some today (under 10 kts) and
becoming more south by afternoon. Increasing shower chances
later tonight with IFR/MVFR cigs along with increasing SE winds.

OUTLOOK THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: Restrictions expected due to lower CIGs/VSBYs in
SHRA/TSRA. Expect increasing S winds.

Friday and Saturday: Gusty W-NW winds expected. Upslope SHRA
continue into Saturday as storm system departs the region.
Restrictions will remain possible, especially W of the Blue Ridge.

Saturday night and Sunday: VFR flight categories expected.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DB
NEAR TERM...BMG/DB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG/AB