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000
FNUS71 KRNK 151050
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for AMJV Rx...Department of Wildlife Resources
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
650 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on April 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Increasing min RH expected today ahead of an approaching front.

Winds increase later this morning as a result of better mixing,
gusting in the 20mph range to perhaps 30 mph at times
from the west-southwest. Min RH around 40 percent.

As the front approaches, expecting a chance for strong
thunderstorms to develop later this afteronng and evening.
Storms will be capable of strong winds and large hail.

The front will stall across the area through Tuesday and
RH will continue to increase with another chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 20 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......6800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 14 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (38400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (98800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................54 early in the morning increasing to 123 in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........14  12  32  35  39  26  29  30
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH
Weather type....                        RW  RW
Tstm cov........                        SCH SCH
CWR.............10  10  10  0   10  10  20  20
Temp............71  73  75  77  79  79  80  79
RH..............48  47  47  44  42  41  40  41
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.12  12  12  12  12  12  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 3.9 4.5 5.2 5.7 6.4 6.8 6.5
Mixng wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Mixng wind spd..14  17  17  15  14  15  17  17
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............54  80  89  90  88  105 123 123
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1K.44  66  76  79  78  96  114 112

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
CWR (0.01 in).......20 percent decreasing to 10 percent early in
                    the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming northwest around
                    6 mph late in the evening becoming light. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 6 to 15 mph decreasing to 2 to 5 mph late
                    in the evening, then shifting to the northeast
                    2 to 8 mph overnight increasing to around 9 mph
                    early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (80000 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1100 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................102 early in the evening decreasing to 1 late
                    in the night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........32     49     53     20     30     39
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC
CWR.............20     10     10     10     10     0
Temp............77     71     67     64     61     58
RH..............43     52     59     66     73     73
20 ft wind......W 7    W 6    W 4    W 4    NW 3   N 3
20 ft wind gust.12     10     6      6      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....6200   900    500    500    500    400
Mixing wind......W 15   W 8    W 5    NW 2   NE 3   NE 8
LVORI...........1      2      3      3      3      3
ADI.............102    7      3      1      2      3
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      3
VRate mph-ft/1K.92     7      2      1      2      3

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent increasing to 40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 5 mph early in the
                    morning becoming light, then becoming east
                    around 5 mph late in the morning shifting to
                    the south 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........East 7 to 9 mph shifting to the south 6 to 7
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (17400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................6 to 20.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........71     56     57     64     76     62
Weather cov.....                                   CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                                   CHANCE
CWR.............0      0      0      0      10     30
Temp............57     59     65     70     73     75
RH..............72     76     63     54     49     47
20 ft wind......NE 5   NE 4   SE 5   S 5    S 6    S 7
20 ft wind gust.6      5      6      7      10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....700    800    1800   2500   3500   2800
Mixing wind......NE 9   E 8    E 7    SE 6   S 6    S 7
LVORI...........3      4      2      2      2      2
ADI.............6      6      15     16     20     20
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      4
VRate mph-ft/1K.6      6      12     14     20     19

$$
Forecaster...Gruver
Requested by...Ron Hughes
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410836.0/RNK
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL tyler.urgo@dcr.virginia.gov