Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
FXUS66 KSEW 242152
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
252 PM PDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A series of weak weather systems will continue to
maintain unsettled weather into the first half of the week. A
stronger frontal system is on track to enter our area on
Wednesday, bringing widespread lowland rain, mountain snow, and
breezy winds. Drier and warmer conditions look to return for next
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Weak high pressure has
kept western Washington generally dry this afternoon, with only a
few showers mainly Olympia southward. This trend will continue for
the remainder of the day, with onshore flow keeping clouds around
and highs in the mid to upper 50s for the majority of the area.

A front will approach the area tonight into Monday afternoon, for
some light lowland rain and light mountain snow. Cooler air will
also push snow levels down to around 2500 to 3000 feet, with maybe
an inch or two over the passes into Monday evening. High temps on
Monday will tap out in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Another weak
impulse will maintain showery conditions over the interior with
northwesterly flow into Tuesday, with high temps hovering in the
low to mid 50s.

A pattern change is on the horizon as latest cluster and ensemble
guidance are in good agreement of a deep upper level trough
approaching the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. There is still
some uncertainty in regards to the track of the storms system,
but, widespread lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy
conditions will be likely across the region into Thursday. Snow
levels look to be around 3500 to 4000 feet, so mountain snow looks
to be on the lighter side, with amounts ranging from 2 to 6
inches for both passes. QPF amounts look to be ranging from a half
an inch to an inch through Wednesday, with the bulk of the
precipitation falling over the Olympics.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Lighter lowland rain and
mountain snow will continue into Friday before tapering up some
as upper level troughing looks to dig southward away from our
area, although some models are delaying the exit of this system,
so timing is a little bit uncertain in the long term.

Ensemble and WPC clusters do lean towards higher heights building
into the weekend, which would allow for drier and warmer
conditions, with the potential of temps hovering that 60 degree
mark once again.

Mazurkiewicz

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered to broken ceilings this afternoon and
evening with pockets of MVFR conditions. A warm front will spread
light rain inland on Monday with MVFR conditions expected. The
flow aloft is northerly, becoming westerly Monday morning. 33

KSEA...SCT-BKN low-end VFR conditions this afternoon and evening.
Moist low level air mass with MVFR conditions likely by 12z. Light
rain in the vicinity through much of the day on Monday. W winds
becoming more SW/S 03-06z. 33

&&

.MARINE...Onshore flow will increase tonight with strongest winds
through the Strait of Juan de Fuca - a Small Craft Advisory is in
effect. A weak warm front will clip western WA on Monday. High
pressure brings generally light winds on Tuesday. South flow will
increase Tuesday night and Wednesday as a stronger Pacific frontal
system moves in. Seas build to 10 to 12 feet Thursday and Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A frontal system entering the area on Wednesday will
bring moderate rain over the Olympics which may cause the
Skokomish River to rise above action stage into Thursday.
Fortunately other rivers will likely not see much of a rise.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Monday
     for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East
     Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.