923
FXUS64 KSHV 060843
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
343 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Quiet start to Monday as temperatures through the morning hold in
the upper 60`s and low 70`s. Early morning RGB NT Microphysics
imagery showcases low clouds working across the FA with some
patchy to dense fog appearing on area ASOS. Given dense fog
development already in progress across the I-30 corridor, a Dense
Fog Advisory has been issued until 9 AM CDT. Elsewhere, patchy fog
should linger through sunrise before burning off by mid morning.
Low clouds will exist across the region through much of the day,
but should see enough breaks in the clouds to allow for sfcT`s to
climb into the mid to upper 80`s.

Aloft, weak upper ridging west of the CWA will work overhead through
the late morning, before sliding east by the afternoon. That being
said, shortwave troughing across Central TX and upper level energy
embedded within the shortwave is progged to move into the SW zones
of the FA by the afternoon. The mix of supportive GOM moisture in
association with deep surface southerlies, plus diurnal sfc
instability and embedded energy aloft within the progressive
shortwave should help to promote some thunderstorm activity this
afternoon across the Four State Region. While local severe probs
remain far lower when compared to areas NW of the CWA, model
soundings this morning, along with HREF UH profiles, showcase the
potential for stronger updrafts, with lapse rates of 7-8 deg
C/km, in a region of supportive SBCAPE values. All of this to say
that a few stronger thunderstorms, where hail production and
gusty winds, along with frequent lightning, can not be ruled out.

Latest Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlook for the Day 1 period
continues to carry a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) just northwest of
the I-30 corridor, with an extending Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
further south across SW Arkansas and NE Texas to cover the
forecasted decay of what is left on the southern side of the
severe threat across Central Oklahoma later today. General
consensus across the morning CAM suite is for the linear composite
to decay as it enters into McCurtain County early tomorrow AM.
For now, not ruling out some gusty winds as the line moves in. We
will need to closely monitor trends through the afternoon on the
fluid severe probs north of the I-30 corridor late this evening.

By Tuesday, mostly dry conditions will prevail locally, though
there remains some low end probs for thunderstorm development as
highlighted in the Day 2 SPC outlook. Similar to yesterday`s
afternoon package, guidance still promotes little to no
thunderstorm development, with local rain chances still near 10
percent. Heat will start to become a headline as we return to the
upper 80`s, nearing 90 deg F Tuesday afternoon. Muggy afternoon
conditions will support heat indices returning to the mid to even
upper 90`s in some spots, as Td`s hover in the low to mid 70`s.

RK

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

By Wednesday, troughing near the Four Corners will lead to ascent
across the Southern Plains, supporting the return of increased
severe probs locally for the Four State Region. Modest
instability, steep lapse rates and ample bulk shear values will
aid in the chance for mature thunderstorm development as lift
associated with an advancing cold front meets an unstable airmass
ahead of the boundary. Based on the latest NWP solutions,
convective initiation would be sometime in the late afternoon,
evolving through the early evening, possibly carrying over into
the overnight period as the front advances south through early
Thursday AM.

As a result of the advertised setup, the latest Day 3 outlook from
the Storm Prediction Center advertises an expansive Enhanced (level
3 out of 5) severe threat across SW Arkansas, through SE Oklahoma,
into NE Texas. This just barely enters NW Louisiana. A Slight Risk
(level 2 of 5) exists for much of the remaining sfc area of the CWA.
The aforementioned boundary will slowly work across the southern
zones through Thursday/Thursday afternoon. Not ruling out additional
thunderstorms across the southern zones early Thursday afternoon,
but this remains somewhat uncertain at this time as it will depend
on the forward speed of the front, and it`s timing with diurnally
driven instability across SE TX and south-central Louisiana.

By Friday AM, the front will have cleared the FA with sfc high
pressure following behind. As a result, a gradual return to some
below or near normal temperatures will be in order following
warmer temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday. This far out,
guidance still suggests the chance for additional showers and
thunderstorms by the end of the upcoming weekend, and into early
next week. That being said, given the uncertainty this far out,
trends in the guidance will need to be closely monitored through
the week.

RK

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions currently prevailing but expect a mix of MVFR/IFR
ceilings to develop across our airspace during the predawn hours
with those ceilings gradually giving way to low VFR ceilings by
late morning into the afternoon hours. Also kept VCTS during the
afternoon and early evening hours across most terminals given the
diurnally driven convective coverage expected today. Look for
stronger SSE winds today, especially across our western terminal
locations with sustained winds near 10-12kts with gusts upwards of
20kts expected at the TYR terminal.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  73  89  72 /  50  10   0   0
MLU  88  71  88  71 /  30  10  10   0
DEQ  83  66  85  66 /  50  40   0  10
TXK  85  71  87  70 /  50  30   0  10
ELD  85  69  87  68 /  40  20   0  10
TYR  84  72  87  71 /  50  20   0   0
GGG  84  72  87  71 /  50  10   0   0
LFK  85  72  90  71 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ050-051-
     059>061.

LA...None.
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ077.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...13